Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
511 FXUS62 KKEY 061435 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1035 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1035 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Sunny skies were noted across the Keys this morning with no precipitation echoes on the KBYX radar. Temperatures were in the mid to upper 80s with dewpoints definitely higher than yesterday, in the mid to upper 70s. Winds were light from the east to southeast at 5 to 10 mph, and about the same along the reef. Water vapor loops show the eastward translation of the upper low, with height falls noted in the past 12 hours mainly 300-200 mb across the Florida Peninsula. Below 500 mb, low level ridging remains in place albeit weak. Precipitable water estimates shed additional light on the situation despite modest 12-24 hour moisture increases calculated in the Key West sounding. Values approaching 2 inches were noted in the Straits, creeping northward acround the southwest flank of the lower tropospheric ridge. Sub-1.5 inch values remain in the place in the western extension of the ridge axis over the eastern Gulf. The aforementioned sounding also had a noticeable erosion of the warm stable cap near 500 mb noted 24 hours ago, with 500 mb temperatures significantly lower by about 2.5C. Not surprisingly, evened the mixed CAPE calculation with the still somewhat-dry lower troposphere has more than doubled. Early morning CAMs have kept convective prognosis in check, but recently began showing more robust precipitation in the lee of the Lower Keys. Otherwise, the light southeast to south winds aloft still favor a Cuba- induced shadow through the afternoon. Tonight could be noticeably different seeing that CAPE buildup should be significant, with deep moisture spreading northward at the same time the upper trough movest east of Florida. A 700-mb inflection of the trough to our northwest could import a neutral or even slightly northerly flow. In short, what happens over south Florida this evening is definitely likely to send outflow boundaries and focus secondary convective development southward and westward. Possiby an active evening convection-wise, especially over our Bay and Gulf waters. && .MARINE... Issued at 1035 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 East to southeast winds were currently around 5 knots this morning with signficant wave height measured around 1.5 feet at at the Scripps buoy southwest of Key West offshore the reef. Weak high pressure over the western Atlantic will slide further offshore through the end of the week as a frontal boundary stalls off the Eastern Seaboard and over north Florida. This will result in gentle southeast breezes across the Keys coastal waters today, becoming light to gentle from the south to southwest from Friday through the weekend and into early next week. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1035 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Near surface winds will continue to be east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots. For now, the terminals will remain dry but later this evening into tonight there is a possibility of some shower activity with VCSH present in the TAF. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JR Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest