Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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628 FXUS63 KLBF 280807 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 307 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions today with seasonable temperatures generally in the 70s. - An active weather pattern begins Wednesday into the weekend with increasing potential for thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall. Some storms may become severe across the Panhandle Wednesday afternoon and evening. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 304 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Recent GOES-16 WV imagery and RAP 500-mb analysis showed a ridge of high pressure centered over Mexico, extending north into northern Canada. Upper-level low pressure was centered off the coast of British Columbia with a trough extending south along the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Another upper-level trough was noted, though rather messy, with several northern and southern-stream shortwaves traversing eastward across the Great Lakes region. All of these features combined has resulted in northwesterly flow aloft across western and north central Nebraska. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the region with a weak cold front moving southwest across South Dakota. At 3 AM CT, temperatures ranged from 40 degrees at Gordon to 53 degrees at O`Neill. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 304 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Quiet and dry conditions are in store for western and north central Nebraska today. Surface high pressure will build into the area with the upper-level ridge nudging further eastward across the Plains, supporting warm air advection (WAA). Seasonable temperatures will be felt across the area as a result, with temperatures ranging from the mid 70s across northern Nebraska to near 80 degrees across southwest Nebraska. The upper-level trough will continue shifting further east with surface pressure falls aiding in the development of a low level jet (LLJ) tonight. With surface high pressure building over the Great Lakes and a lee side trough developing across northeast Wyoming on Wednesday, the surface pressure gradient (SPG) will tighten across western and north central Nebraska. Given this and the LLJ, south-southeasterly winds will increase Wednesday morning, with peak afternoon gusts of 25 to 35 miles per hour. With the upper- level ridge axis bisecting the local area into Wednesday, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer as compared to today. Daytime temperatures on Wednesday are expected to climb into the upper 70s to low 80s area wide. Southerly low-level flow will establish efficient moisture transport into the Plains with a ribbon of precipitable water values into the 90th percentile as highlighted by both the NAEFS and ENS ensembles. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates (8 C/km) will aid in a narrow corridor of increased instability (MLCAPE ~1,000 to 2,000 J/kg) along the lee surface trough. Despite surface dew points only reaching into the mid to upper 50s and low-level shear remaining rather weak, this environment will be conducive for strong to severe surface gusts and large hail for areas primarily along and west of Highway 83. Convection appears to initiate over eastern Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle late Wednesday afternoon, eventually congealing into a line as it tracks eastward across the state of Nebraska. Convection is expected to weaken overnight as it continues into in a more stabilizing environment across central and north central Nebraska. In regards to the excessive rainfall potential, with PWATs approaching or exceeding 1" across the area combining with steep mid- level lapse rates and strong WAA, locally heavy rainfall will be possible across the southern Panhandle into southwest Nebraska. Will continue to monitor the severe potential as CAMs get into range and get a better handle on the track of the system and the environment. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 304 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Shower and thunderstorm chances persist through the day on Thursday as the system continues to progress eastward. The severe threat will shift further south of the area where the main axis of instability and forcing will reside. However, cannot rule out the potential for strong to briefly severe storms across far southwest Nebraska given the ribbon of instability bisecting that area. An associated cold front will sweep across the area Thursday bringing cooler temperatures to the area. Highs will primarily be in the upper 60s to mid 70s on Thursday, though quickly warming back into the 80s this weekend. With the upper-level trough continuing to move through the High Plains and moisture lingering over the region, the potential for diurnally biased showers and thunderstorm will continue through the end of the week and into the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1253 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Expect mostly clear skies across the area over the next 24 hours. A few high clouds at 25000 FT AGL will be possible at the KLBF terminal. Winds will be variable at under 10 KTS over the next 24 hours. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Viken SHORT TERM...Viken LONG TERM...Viken AVIATION...Buttler