Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 281748
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1248 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED
EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH CUSTER
COUNTY. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
HINGE ON ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY IN THE WAKE OF THIS Activity.
LATEST RAP/LAPS DATA SUGGEST THE BEST INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS CONFINED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION LIMITS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION TO THE EAST.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MORNING CONVECTION PRODUCED
RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1" PER HOUR AT TIMES...WITH SIMILAR
RATES LIKELY IN THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS MOVING OUT OF THE
PANHANDLE AND INTO AREAS THAT SAW MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

A belt of 45 to 55kt winds at h500mb will provide strong shear
for severe storm development today. The model consensus is keeping
the instability...both sfc and elevated... across the Neb
Panhandle...Swrn Neb and Ern Colo... mostly west of the forecast
area. Despite the weak instability across Ncntl Neb...the NAM
radar reflectivity product would suggest strong to severe storms
will develop across Ncntl Neb this aftn. The HRRR...NMM and ARW
models are farther west with this feature. The model consensus
suggests significant thunderstorm potential along and west of a
line from Valentine to Broken Bow. POPs are as high as 60 percent
today and tonight.

The disturbance of interest is over Srn MT this morning and water
vapor suggests strong dynamics which could steepen lapse
rates...perhaps into Ncntl Neb. The severe weather forecast follows
the SPC forecast covering Wrn Neb with severe weather potential. The
NAM and RAP show very little MUcape across Ncntl Neb.

Blended guidance plus bias correction produces highs in the upper
70s to mid 80s today. Significant cloud cover is expected with
rounds of thunderstorms developing morning...afternoon and night.
With dew points in the 60s...periods of sun could warm temperatures
into 80s...steepen lapse rates...generate instability and produce
storms capable of severe weather.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Northwest flow aloft continues Friday as the upper level ridge of
high pressure remains centered across the desert southwest. An
upper level disturbance embedded within the flow will be exiting
off to the east Friday morning, with little upper support the
remainder of the day to have more than a slight chance pop for
rainfall. Otherwise at least partial sunshine will help
allow temperatures to rise to around 80 degrees by afternoon.

Friday night into Saturday, will maintain a slight chance pop due
to very weak impulses moving southeast across the area, but cannot
find any upper level support to go with a higher pop. It will
begin to warm Saturday as southerly flow advects warmer air north.
H850mb temperatures rise into the 20s Celsius by afternoon which
will easily support highs in the 80s.

Flow aloft becomes more zonal east to west Sunday into next week
as the upper level ridge aloft flattens some and moves east and
becomes centered across the southern plains. Really no distinct
waves expected to cross the area within the flow aloft, but
several very weak impulses are noted. Have included a slight
chance pop as these impulses cross, but timing will be an issue
and pops will likely be adjusted in later forecasts.

As far as temperatures, they will continue to warm, with highs
expected in the 90s for the first through middle of next week. The
ridge does not build as far northward as the last hot spell, and
not expecting triple digit heat at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to push through much of
western Nebraska this afternoon. Erratic wind gusts and brief
heavy rainfall will be possible. Confidence decreases with the
thunderstorm potential this evening as latest model runs have
struggled to come to a consensus on the forecast. Current radar
and satellite trends suggest that current activity will move
south of Nebraska after 00z...with a lingering scattered storms
possible in northern Nebraska through 01z. Chances for additional
storms will continue tonight, however confidence is not high
enough to warrant mention in the TAF at this time.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Martin
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Martin


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