Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 131217 AAD
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
717 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

NEDOR CAMS IN SHERIDAN COUNTY INDICATE HEAVY BLOWING SNOW IN SPOTS
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. THE HRRR SUGGESTS
SNOW THROUGH 15Z SO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE THERE
AND IN WRN CHERRY COUNTY UNTIL 18Z...GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS
IN CHERRY COUNTY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AT KIEN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

SFC WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 30 MPH OR STRONGER THIS HOUR AND SNOW
IS UNDERWAY AT THEDFORD AND WEST THROUGH THE PANHANDLE SO THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT NOW THROUGH 7 PM CDT. THE 09Z
RAP MODEL WHICH SUCCESSFULLY PREDICTED THE SNOW BAND DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS SWINGS THIS BAND SOUTH THROUGH LINCOLN
COUNTY AND MERGES IT THIS AFTN WITH A NEW BAND DEVELOPING FROM
KLXN TO KODX...A BIT EAST OF THE 07Z-08Z RUNS. THE SNOW FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY ON TRACK AND THE QPF RATES IN THE 09Z
MODEL RUN INDICATE 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

THE 08Z RAP AND 05Z HRRR ARE CONSISTENT WITH A HEAVY SNOW BAND
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON STRETCHING THROUGH FRONTIER...CUSTER AND
WHEELER COUNTIES. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THIS EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AND THE ADDITION OF WHEELER COUNTY TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. THE EXPECTED 4 INCH TOTALS IN THESE AREAS IS CONSISTENT
THE THE LATEST SOLNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

THE 05Z RAP APPEARS TO BE LEADING THE MODEL PACK FOLLOWED BY THE
HRRR AND THEN THE NAM DEVELOPING A FULL BLOWN SPRING SNOW STORM.
WATER VAPOR AND THE RAP PV 1.0 SFC SUGGEST THE NRN AND SRN STREAM
DISTURBANCES MAY PHASE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE MODELS ARE
COUPLING THE 850-700MB AND 700-500MB PETERSON FGEN ACROSS CNTL NEB
THIS AFTN AND PRODUCING A HEAVY RAIN-SNOW BAND FROM ROUGHLY 50 MILES
EITHER SIDE OF AN ARC FROM KHDE TO KBVN. THE NAM AND SREF ARE
FARTHER WEST AND NORTH WELL INTO THE FCST AREA WHILE THE RAP AND
HRRR ARE MOSTLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA IN CNTL NEB.

THE FORECAST FOLLOWS 50 PERCENT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND 50
PERCENT OF THE 05Z RAP...WHICH IS RUN EVERY HOUR. THE 07Z RAP HAS
SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST QPF...1.5 INCHES...BACK WEST INTO EASTERN
FRONTIER AND CUSTER COUNTIES. REGARDLESS...THE FORECAST PRODUCES 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW GENERALLY ACROSS WRN NEB...SRN NEB AND CUSTER
COUNTY TODAY BUT ERRORS COULD BE LARGE IN THESE TYPES OF EVENTS. THE
STAKES ARE QUITE HIGH WITH THIS ONE AS A 30-50 KT BARRIER JET
DEVELOPS FROM 850-750MB NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE FCST AREA. 30 TO 35
MPH SFC WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP UNDER THAT JET AND EXTEND WEST THROUGH
LINCOLN COUNTY.

THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW THE RAIN BAND ACROSS NRN NEB DECAYING EARLY
THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE FORMATION OF A SECOND HEAVIER SNOW BAND
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS AND SWRN NEB TO BE FOLLOWED BY A THIRD AND
HEAVIER RAIN-SNOW BAND ACROSS CNTL NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATTER
TWO BANDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR AND THE 07Z RAP INDICATES 3 INCHES PER
HOUR ACROSS SERN CUSTER AND ERN FRONTIER COUNTIES.

TEMPERATURES TODAY FALL MOST OF THE DAY ACCORDING TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND EVEN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS NO
CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE STORY MONDAY...AS A BATCH OF LATE
SEASON ARCTIC AIR OOZES SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
DAY...AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS FROM NORTH DURING THE MORNING TO
NORTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT...HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S AREA WIDE...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 20 MPH. IF A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW MATERIALIZES TODAY...THEN HIGHS
MAY ONLY REACH THE 30S WHERE THE SNOW FALLS.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH
MUCH WARMER AIR ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH...ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE TREND IS FOR A WEAKER LESS
AMPLIFIED SYSTEM. UNTIL THE MODELS CONVERGE ON AN OVERALL
SOLUTION...WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA WITH LOW POPS OF 20
TO 40 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT
LOOKS TO BE IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHERE THE HIGHER 40 POPS
RESIDE. OTHERWISE MORE COLD AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH...BUT HERE TOO
MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR. THE GFS IS THE
COLDEST...BUT IT HAS ALSO BEEN THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND IS NOW
BACKING OFF. THE ECMWF HAS JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF COLD AIR
THURSDAY...WITH A QUICK WARM UP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

IFR/LOCAL LIFR FROM BIG SPRINGS TO BREWSTER WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH
AND EAST TODAY AND EXIT THE FCST AREA AROUND 00Z. VFR IS EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.

WINDS TODAY 36027G40KT DIMINISH THIS EVENING AROUND SUNSET.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NEZ004-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC






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