Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 211724

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1224 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

An arctic front...currently near Huron SD...should back into Holt
and Boyd counties before sunrise. The area of rain across Nrn
Nebraska should intersect the front for a period of snow this
morning. Temperatures aloft are cold enough for snow. The front may
reach Valentine also. Around an inch accumulation is expected.

Another disturbance will move through tonight but this will more
like a warm front with the arctic air retreating east. Most of the
models show a mix of ice and snow. The SREF was the basis for snow,
sleet and rain in the forecast. It showed sleet was more likely than
freezing rain so the forecast includes sleet and snow. Around an
inch accumulation is expected.

The temperature forecast today and tonight uses bias corrected
guidance which was spiked with the HRRR...RAP and HRRR EXP models
for highs in the 30s north to 50s south. Lows tonight fall into the
20s and 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

A fairly active pattern will be present across the central Plains
for the next several days. The departing shortwave on Wednesday
morning will result in some light snow and rain showers across north
central Nebraska. Additional accumulations on Wednesday morning are
expected to be minimal. After a brief dry period on Wednesday
afternoon, the region will be impacted by several more shortwaves
moving off the Rockies through Thursday. Will keep isolated
chances for light rain showers in the forecast for this timeframe.

The next major system arrives on Thursday night and Friday. A
developing low pressure system will move off the front range and
track eastward across the central Plains. This system has the
potential to bring heavier rain to the region as well as an isolated
thunderstorm on Thursday night. Severe potential is not a concern at
this time as the atmosphere does not appear to be unstable enough
with this system. At this time, this system looks like it will be
just a heavy rain system across central Nebraska. Liquid QPF values
are anticipated to be near 1 inch. After a few weeks of dry
conditions, this will be a welcome relief to the region. Rain
continues through Friday before finally pulling off to the east by
Friday night. There is a brief chance for the precipitation to
change over to snow on Friday night as temperatures fall into the
upper 20s and low 30s. The majority of the precipitation will be
east of the region though and therefore the only locations that
might see a few snow flakes will be east of a Hayes Center to
Springview line.

Weak ridging behind the departing low will develop on Saturday and
Sunday. This will keep conditions dry with high temperatures in the
50s. A messy pattern returns on Sunday night with another developing
low bringing rain chances to the region again. A series of systems
are forecasted to impact the region through early week, resulting in
periods of rain to continue. For the most part, precipitation will
remain all rain, with the northern areas (north of highway 2)
possibly seeing a wet snowflake or two.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

IFR ceilings at KVTN will improve to VFR, then fall back to MVFR
after midnight as a disturbance tracks across northern Nebraska.
This will bring a chance for light snow or sleet after midnight.
At KLBF, VFR conditions are forecast through tonight. Isolated
rain or snow showers are possible after midnight. On Wednesday
morning, ceilings are forecast to fall into the MVFR category.




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