Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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274 FXUS63 KLBF 161747 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1247 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry over the next 48 to 60 hours and very warm Friday. - Chances increase for showers/thunderstorms after Saturday as a more active pattern settles into the central CONUS. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Weak surface high pressure will slide south and east of the forecast area today. At the same time, a weak upper level disturbance will track across North Dakota leading to the development of surface low pressure over western North Dakota. Winds will be light from the west today, north of the exiting high and east of a weak surface trough, oriented from western North Dakota into the Nebraska Panhandle. For highs today, MET, MAV and ECS forecast highs were in close agreement across the forecast area, and blended all three of these members for afternoon highs. This yielded highs in the upper 70s to around 80. Winds tonight will shift to the south and southwest, remaining light. With abundant dry air in place, overnight lows will bottom out around 50 degrees. On Friday, an upper level disturbance will lift across Montana. Surface low pressure will deepen over western South Dakota. A surface trough will trail south of this feature into western Nebraska. The latest NAM12 soln has the trough axis roughly along the highway 83 corridor Friday afternoon. East of the trough axis, winds will be southerly with westerly and southwesterly winds west of the axis. West of the trough, very warm air is forecast with H85 temps reaching 25 to 28C Friday afternoon. Like this afternoon, there is good agreement between the MET, MAV and ECS guidance for highs Friday. Utilizing a blend of the three, yielded highs in the upper 80s to around 90. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will develop in advance of the Montana shortwave Friday afternoon and evening. The latest NBM forecast did place some low pops in the northwestern forecast area overnight Friday night. Looking at the latest QPF probabilities Friday night, there was less than a 15 percent chance of 0.01 inches of QPF in the northwestern forecast area. After collaborating with UNR, went ahead and pulled out the mention of pops Friday night. The shortwave trough will track across North Dakota on Saturday forcing a frontal boundary through the forecast area late Friday night into Saturday morning. Surface high pressure will build into the area Saturday afternoon, resulting in high temperatures in the 70s. On Saturday night, a broad trough of low pressure aloft will lift into the intermountain west. A weak disturbance will lead to shower and thunderstorm development over eastern Colorado into Kansas. Precipitation chances will be limited across the forecast area Saturday night due to a lack of low level moisture. A developing surface trough and southerly winds, will push moisture into the forecast area Sunday. With west southwesterly flow aloft in place, thunderstorm chances will increase Sunday across the area. Thunderstorm chances will persist thorugh Tuesday night as persistent west southwesterly flow aloft continues. This pattern will transition to more zonal toward midweek, decreasing the threat for showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon through tonight across all of western and north central Nebraska. Winds will be light through tonight at 10 kts or less. Similar conditions are expected during the day Friday. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Buttler SHORT TERM...Buttler LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...Taylor