Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 141139

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
639 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Sensible weather concerns today revolve around thunderstorm
chances again. While strong to briefly severe thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon-evening, impacts from thunderstorms
(hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall) are expected to be less
compared to the the last two days. Latest local radar display
shows a few lingering showers over south central and southeastern
Custer county, apart from that no more convective activity is
present. Latest satellite imagery shows mid-level clouds in
western NEB and some developing in northeast CO. Otherwise, breaks
are present, more so over southeast and north central NEB.

Surface dew points are expected to increase some during the day
in the east and that could be attributable to south/southeast
winds. Dew points are forecast in the mid to upper 60s today in
portions of central and north central NEB this afternoon with
upper 50s in the west. The combination of this moisture,
insolation (partly to mostly sunny skies forecast), and
steepening lapse rates at mid-levels (700-500 hPa) to 7-8 C/km
should contribute to moderate instability. Wherein MLCAPEs of
1500-2000 J/kg is forecast from northwest NEB towards south
central NEB with more modest instability in the Panhandle.
Meanwhile, deep layer vertical wind shear is forecast to increase
to about 30-40 kts (0-6 km) this afternoon and evening. A concern
though revolves around initial development and overall forcing
with some details difficult to pin down at this time. As such,
currently think development will occur upstream in higher terrain
and over southwest NEB into the central/eastern Sandhills. This
thinking matches closely with some of the deterministic guidance
and the SPC SSEO. Chances for showers/thunderstorms then continue
tonight into the small hours with chances then more confined
outside far western and far southwest NEB. Otherwise, similar to
slightly warmer highs are expected today in the 80s to lower 90s,
warmest in extreme southwest NEB. Lows tonight will be mild -- low
to mid 60s forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Tuesday is forecasted to be the most active day out of the next
week as a front gets dragged across the region on Tuesday night.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to begin by early
afternoon with the most intense storms occurring after 7pm. At
this time the environment looks favorable for large hail and
strong winds as well as the potential for heavy localized flooding
once again. SPC has already put much of north central Nebraska in
a slight risk for severe storms. Will continue to monitor this
system over the next day.

While storms are expected to end by 7am Wednesday, storm chances
will continue through much of the rest of the week.
Afternoon/evening storms are expected both Wednesday and
Thursday as shortwaves move across the region. A fairly dry
forecast will return for Friday and through the weekend. Just a
few isolated slight chance pops (under 20 percent) are possible in
the afternoon/evenings. Confidence in the development of these
showers is low.

Will keep temperatures holding steady in the low to mid 80s
through the week before slowing rising into the upper 80s and
low 90s by the weekend. Low temperatures will hold steady in the
upper 50s to low 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 553 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Latest surface plot shows patchy fog evident across portions of
north central NEB, Sandhills, and southwest NEB. KANW, KGRN, KONL,
and KOGA reporting some reduction in visibility early this
morning ranging from LIFR to MVFR. Conditions should improve by
mid morning. Otherwise, modest light breezes expected today out of
the east or southeast with winds less than 15 kts. Chances for
thunderstorms again today with the best chances in the afternoon
and evening across the eastern Panhandle and southeast NEB to
eastern Sandhills. Including PROB30 for -TSRA in the KLBF TAF. Not
enough confindence in impacts at KVTN thus no mention at this




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