Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 171933

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
233 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Surface high pressure will remain over the central US over the next
couple days bringing dry and warm conditions to north central
Nebraska. Clear skies and light winds overnight will result in
temperatures dropping into the low to mid 40s across the region.
Locally warmer temperatures in the upper 40s are possible across
portions of north central Nebraska (northeast of a line from
Chambers to Valentine).

For Wednesday, a weak shortwave will move across the region. No
precipitation is expected, however, have increased winds a little
for the afternoon as the trough passes. Northerly winds are expected
to be close to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph between 1pm and 4pm.
An increase in winds combined with cold air advection behind the
passing shortwave will also result in slightly cooler temperatures
than originally forecasted. Have also lowered maximum temperatures a
few degrees to account for this change. Afternoon temperatures will
now range from the mid 60s across the Pine Ridge region up to the
low 70s across the south and western portions of the forecast

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

The extended period will be highlighted by anomalously warm
temperatures Thursday and Friday, followed by a cooldown to
near normal on Saturday.

An upper ridge will build east on Thursday from the Plains into
the Midwest in response to an upper trough digging into the
Pacific Northwest. 850mb temperatures will warm to around 18C and
southerly winds increase to 10 to 20 mph and gusty by afternoon.
Highs to easily reach the mid to upper 70s. Only an increase in
high clouds expected with increasing southwest flow aloft. Lows
Thursday night raised a few degrees from southwest into eastern
areas with southerly winds and higher dewpoints in the upper 40s.
On Friday, the main upper trough axis will cross the Rockies, with
a thermal ridge strengthening across the Plains. Friday looks to
be the warmest day reaching the upper 70s to around 80. Friday,
Friday night and Saturday were targets of opportunity to raise
wind speeds and gusts following the latest CONSMOS guidance. Looks
like southerly winds could gust to 30 mph nctrl and east Friday,
followed by a cold front passage Friday night with west to
northwest winds 15 to 30 mph. Then Saturday, northwest winds
gusting to 35 mph. There remains at least a slight chance for
showers Friday night into Saturday morning, mainly east and north
central. The GFS and GEM focus chances in the east Friday night
only, while the ECMWF keeps chances for post frontal showers
across the western zones Saturday. Highs cool on Saturday to the
upper 50s and lower 60s, warming back up to the upper 60s to
around 70 Sunday. Another cold front and northwest flow to keep
highs in the low to mid 60s Monday and Tuesday, which is near to
slightly above normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Quiet aviation weather is expected at both KVTN and KLBF over the
next day. High pressure will result in dry and clear conditions
across the region. The only major concern will be tonight when low
level wind conditions are expected to develop at KVTN. Light winds
this afternoon and overnight will give way to stronger winds on
Wednesday morning. Southerly winds could gust up to 20 knots by
15Z Wednesday.




LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Kulik is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.