Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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028 FXUS63 KLBF 252346 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 646 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... *Strong to severe thunderstorms late afternoon and evening *Additional showers and thunderstorms Sunday *Warmer by mid-week *Another chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 338 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Precipitation chances will increase later this afternoon into the evening hours. Dew points are currently in the mid 40s to low 50s and are expected to reach the upper 40s to low 50s, generally along and east of HWY 83 by late afternoon. This will provide some marginal sfc moisture to the area, with the best moisture remaining to the east across central and eastern Nebraska. Do expect we could see a few strong to severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening, with the main threat being wind. Initial storms will move in from the west from WY this afternoon into portions of western Nebraska, however the environment across the northwest Sandhills is uncertain if it will be able to support upscale growth and any thunderstorm that moves into that area will have to compete with some drier air, thus leading to the uncertainty. Another focus area for storm development will be across southwest Nebraska where thunderstorms will develop across Colorado and move northeast into the area. The environment is a little more favorable across portions of southwest Nebraska, although drier air could still play a factor as dew points will only be in the low 40s. The greater moisture and most favorable location for strong to severe thunderstorm development will generally be along and east of HWY 83, thus any storms that develop or sustain themselves into this environment should have a marginal threat of growing upscale into a supercell, do think that a broken type line of storms will develop as time goes on and storms progress eastward and would expect more scattered/broken line development along and east of HWY 183 and eastward. Forecast soundings are showing an inverted V type sounding that increases confidence in the environment supporting strong to damaging wind gust. This will be the main mode of hazard for severe weather this afternoon and evening, however there is also a potential for hail, CAPE values will be around 1000 J/kg to 1500 J/kg with lapse rates above 7 C/km. Except moist of the strong to severe storm potential to be out of the forecast area shortly after sunset. As for Sunday, additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible as another shortwave moves into the area. The greatest timeframe for showers and thunderstorms will be Sunday afternoon lingering into the evening hours. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 338 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Memorial Day will be dry with near normal temperatures as highs will be in the low to mid 70s. A ridge will begin to build in from the west and highs will warm into the 80s by Tuesday. A trof will move through later Wednesday and should see a good chance for scattered to more widespread showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Another disturbance will move across the High Plains on Thursday with another round of thunderstorms possible Thursday afternoon and evening. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 A line of thunderstorms will move through early this evening, with strong wind gusts expected. Winds are expected to be erratic in thunderstorms. After the thunderstorms pass, winds should be a prevailing northerly direction, but may vary from northeasterly to northwesterly. Lower ceilings are expected to stick around through KVTN, bringing MVFR to IFR conditions. Still a bit of uncertainty in ceiling heights and gusts with thunderstorms, so amendments may be needed if prevailing conditions change more than expected. Further south, KLBF should remain VFR throughout, with winds being the primary aviation concern. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gomez LONG TERM...Gomez AVIATION...Richie