238
FXUS63 KLBF 040551
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1251 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After scattered rain showers and general thunderstorms later
  today through early Tuesday morning, dry weather is expected
  through late Thursday.

- Temperatures will waver slightly day-to-day with overall
  values favoring near to slightly above normal values. At this
  time, concerns for any high heat days remains quite low.

- More active weather arrives this weekend with recurring
  chances for rain and thunderstorms. The threat for severe
  weather remains somewhat uncertain at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Early afternoon satellite analysis depicts mostly clear skies for
much of central and west central Nebraska. Light southerly winds
were noted across the area with a modest convergent area invof the
Highway 61 corridor. This will translate west as a dry line sharpens
across the eastern Panhandle later this afternoon into the evening.
Temperatures as of 20z (3pm CDT) ranged from the upper 70s to middle
80s east to west.

For this late afternoon and evening...the aforementioned dry line
will be the area to watch for scattered rain and thunderstorm
development that will carryover into the early morning hours on
Tuesday. Forcing will remain weak but enough low-level convergence
and height falls aloft should allow for some general showers and
thunderstorms to form to the west and gradually shift east into the
forecast area by early evening. Forecast soundings show most of the
saturated layer developing in the mid-levels due in part to fgen and
WAA originating in the h85 to h7 layer. Below this, some dry air
will linger which may inhibit how much liquid reaches the surface
initially at least. While plan view NWP guidance shows high MUCAPE
values, much of this is rooted from the surface with significant CIN
and/or capping to overcome so thought is anything over the next 12
to 15 hours in the local area will be elevated and not realizing
these higher instability values. Lows tonight, under increasing
cloud cover and with scattered showers and thunderstorms, will
likely only fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s west to east. These
values are generally 5 to 15 degF above normal for early June.

Tuesday...precipitation should quickly depart to the east as the
main low pressure system occludes to the north and the trailing
frontal boundary continues to track east. Behind a secondary frontal
boundary expected to pass late morning through midday, expecting to
see modest CAA. Because of this, temperatures are likely to vary
notably from north to south with areas along the South Dakota
border likely only reaching the middle 70s but climb to the middle
80s south of Interstate 80. Northerly winds will be breezy at times
with gusts of up to 30 mph possible before decreasing by late
afternoon. Lows Tuesday night will fall into the 50s with some
sheltered areas potentially making a run at the upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Wednesday and Thursday...Broadening upper-level ridging will expand
into the central and southern Plains through the day Wednesday
beneath troughing situated across southern Canada. This ridging will
have greater impacts on local weather as the northern stream jet is
shunted north. Temperatures will climb as a result of prolonged
southerly flow beneath the anomalous heights aloft where NAEFS
guidance suggests h5 and above heights/temperatures exceeding the
90th percentile and nearing model climatological maximum values
Wednesday into Thursday. That said, surface features such as a
trailing cool front from the Canadian system will introduce a slight
cooldown for Thursday. So following a day with highs in the middle
to upper 80s Wednesday, temperatures drop into the 70s to low 80s in
the post frontal airmass Thursday as modest surface high approaches.

Friday and beyond...ridge axis will quick approach the Great Basin
by Friday with northwesterly flow across the Plains. As surface high
pressure settles east, broad southerly flow will reestablish itself
across much of the region. This will promote increasing warm air and
moisture advection through the weekend as dew points climb into the
50s to low 60s. With expected daytime highs generally in the 70s and
80s, we should see recurring chances for rain and thunderstorms in
the area though day-to-day predictability will likely waver somewhat
until smaller scale features get better resolved with later
forecasts. For now, believe the best window or day to see rain and
thunderstorms will be Friday night into Saturday. For now, overall
pattern suggests a non-zero severe weather threat each of these days
but details are far from certain at this time. Surface high pressure
will skirt the area by late weekend which will likely reintroduce
some cooler temperatures with highs on Friday in the mid to upper
80s, falling to the 70s and low 80s for each day Saturday through
Monday. The next notable mid-level disturbance will track out of the
northern Rockies and onto the Plains sometime early next week which
will likely yield more widespread rain and thunderstorm chances.
Even at this range, ensemble solutions depict fairly high
probabilities of seeing > 0.1" of rain at > 40-50% being advertised
by both EPS and GEFS ensemble suites.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

VFR should continue through the forecast period for western and
north central Nebraska terminals, although a couple aviation
weather concerns exist. The first is regarding scattered shower
and thunderstorm activity through the overnight hours, tapering
by sunrise. A cool front passage will then result in
strengthening northwest winds this morning with gusts 20+ kts,
and eventually tapering by sunset.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Snively