Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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623 FXUS63 KLBF 070843 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 343 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A slight risk (risk level 2 of 5) of severe weather this afternoon and evening with large hail and damaging winds the primary threats, however, an isolated tornado could also be possible. - Cooler highs in the upper 60s to 70s Saturday through Monday, with chances for showers and a few thunderstorms. - Drier weather with a gradual warming trend Tuesday through Thursday with highs rising into the upper 80s to lower 90s by Wednesday and Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 The main forecast focus in the short term will be the development of strong to sever thunderstorms this afternoon into early this evening. Synoptically, an upper ridge will be centered over Texas into New Mexico with closed lows over Saskatchewan and Manitoba and over the Northern Great Lakes. By 21Z, a warm front will extend from near Valentine through O`Neill and Omaha. High from near 80 near and north of the warm front, to the low to mid 90s southwest. This warm front will be the focus for storms to initiate along by around 20Z. Dewpoints will increase into the low to mid 60s south of the warm front providing moderate instability to support the development of supercells initially across portions of north central Nebraska. As these storms track southeastward, storms will likely congeal into a few clusters which will be favorable for bow segments to occur. Current model guidance suggests mid level lapse rates above 7 C/km along with MUCAPEs to 2500 J/kg. Deep layer shear will be very strong from 50 to 60 kts invof the warm front. The main threats will be damaging winds and hail up to golf ball sized. Near the warm front over north central Nebraska, or existing boundaries in the warm sector, isolated tornadoes are possible. At this time, widespread flooding is not expected to be a concern, although, some localized brief flash flooding could still occur under some of the more intense thunderstorms. The most intense storms and storm coverage should be from 4 to 6 pm. At this time, the greatest potential to see severe thunderstorms will generally be along and east of a line from Hayes Center through Hyannis and Valentine. The severe potential will come to and end by mid evening. Some lingering showers and thunderstorms will be possible overnight, although isolated in coverage. A cold front will push through overnight with lows in the 50s. Saturday, much cooler, with H85 temperatures only from 11 to 13C, with highs from 70 to 75. Considerable cloudiness with weak disturbances sufficient to generate showers and a few thunderstorms main across the western into the central Sandhills. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Additional shower and thunderstorm chances continue Sunday through Monday night as a series of disturbances move across Nebraska. The threat for severe storms remains low as the best instability remains to the west and south. Much below temperatures with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s Sunday moderate slightly to the low 70s Monday and the upper 70s to around 80 Tuesday. Upper level ridging will return Wednesday and Thursday with highs returning to the upper 80s to lower 90s. Still a slight chances for storms as active flow exists across the Northern Plains and Gulf moisture remains with a lack of frontal passages. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1253 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 A cold front will move southeast across the area this afternoon. Prior to the front arrival, winds will be from the south at 10-20 kts then shift to the northeast around 10 kts this evening behind the front. VFR conditions will prevail area wide outside of any scattered thunderstorm development along the front this afternoon. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...Taylor