062
FXUS64 KLCH 042308
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
608 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered off the
Carolina coast ridging wwd over the sern CONUS, maintaining a
moist srly low-level flow over the region. Water vapor imagery
shows weak disturbances rounding weak troffing over the Great
Lakes within a wrly flow aloft with mid/upper-level ridging now
suppressed to the wrn Gulf. The first in these disturbances has
fired off an MCS which is driving convection across mainly cntl LA
at this time. The weakening trend seen earlier has come to an end
with better destabilization and improving lapse rates aloft, and
thus SPC issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for most of our LA
area through 19L/01z. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat,
with even sub-severe gusts possibly uprooting trees given the very
saturated soils across the watch area.

Thereafter a persistent pattern lingers through at least tomorrow
with yet another MCS progged to develop over the srn Plains, expected
to trek serly into the wrn Gulf region, leading to elevated POPs
beginning Wednesday morning across our nrn zones with a swd push
through the day. In response, SPC has raised a marginal risk for
the entire forecast area for Wednesday/Wednesday night. Likewise,
WPC has introduced a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for
essentially the entire area.

Ridging aloft over nern Mexico/TX will try to spread its influence
ewd for Thursday, although forecast soundings indicate somewhat
limited capping at best, mainly over the wrn zones. Meanwhile less
capping will combine with daytime heating to allow for scattered
late morning/afternoon convection across the ern 1/2, especially
lower Acadiana where deeper moisture is progged. With the more
diurnally-driven/less dynamically-driven activity expected, SPC
is keeping the area in just a general outlook for thunder at this
time. Will have to see if any outlooks are drawn up for Thursday
by WPC, especially given the antecedent conditions over the
highest POPped areas.

25

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

The long-term pattern remains mostly unchanged, which means wet and
warm. Slow-moving boundaries will keep rain in the forecast while
ridging aloft will keep the warm weather close by. At 500 mb, we
will have northwest flow due to the high pressure over old Mexico.
This high will extend a ridge across SETX and SWLA. The riding will
create a general northwest flow that will guide the frontal
boundaries that are expected to move across the region. At the
surface high pressure off the east coast will keep our background
winds from the south. The first will be sometime around Friday but
it could move through late Thursday. Models do show a steep front,
and strong convection will be a concern as this system moves
through. This front will then stall near the coast, and in the mean
time, the parade of systems will continue with another MCS moving
across the region on Monday. For the rest of the week, sea breeze
and daytime heating will lead to afternoon showers and
thunderstorms.

Since it is June, saying there are cooler temperatures in the
forecast means high 80s instead of actually cool temperatures. The
series of disturbances will also bring pulses of north winds and
drier air. Early next week, the heat index values will be almost
enjoyable in the high 90s.

14/Slaughter

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)

Afternoon MCS for the most part dissipating over South Central
Louisiana, with only some lingering SHRA/TSRA near LFT/ARA.
Otherwise, southeast winds 10-14 kts expected to diminish to 6 kts
at AEX, 8-10 for BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA this evening and overnight. MVFR
ceilings expected by 08z through the late Wednesday morning
hours. Another MCS could be moving through the late morning/early
afternoon hours on Wednesday, with terminals appropriately noted
with VCTS and tempo groups for TSRA and gusty winds.

08/DML

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Caution headlines continue on most of the waters through tonight
and into Wednesday.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  89  71  91 /  20  60  30  20
LCH  77  89  75  91 /  20  30  10  40
LFT  78  91  76  92 /  40  30  20  50
BPT  78  91  75  94 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...08