Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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407 FXUS64 KLCH 222012 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 312 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 A warm and muggy Wednesday afternoon is ongoing across the forecast area, with temperatures currently ranging from the mid to upper 80s, while dewpoints are in the mid to upper 70s yielding heat indices in the mid 90s to lower 100s in a few spots. Visible satellite imagery shows low to mid level clouds streaming north across the area, while radar is mostly quiet apart from a couple of showers to the north and west of our CWA boundary. As we move into tonight, convection to our north will continue to blossom along a nearby cold front, and some of these showers and storms may be able to make their way as far south as the Tyler CO to Rapides Parish line. SPC has outlined this part of the CWA in a Marginal Risk today, mainly for the risk for damaging winds. For the most part, short range guidance keeps most of this convection to our north, but a stray thunderstorm or two can`t be ruled out. Otherwise, another warm and humid night is on tap with lows in the mid 70s. The remainder of the work week will consist of warm and dry conditions, as upper level ridging anchored to our south maintains zonal flow aloft and onshore flow continues at the surface. Little to no day-to-day changes are expected through the next few days, with partly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 80s to low 90s on tap. Overnight, lows will continue to fall into the mid 70s. 17 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Tuesday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 As the forecast period begins, unseasonably hot conditions will be in place with south flow off the Gulf providing high humidity values to go along with the above normal air temperatures. These conditions will prevail over the weekend into Monday with max afternoon apparent temperature or heat index value between 100F and 105F degrees. On Monday, the upper level pattern will change some with the ridge weakening and flattening out that will allow for a short wave to move across the region that will bring a surface boundary into the forecast area late Monday into Monday night. Still some differences on the exact timing and how far south the boundary will get before stalling and washing out. At this point, it looks like some showers or storms will be in store during the Monday evening hours. High PWAT values are noted before the boundary arrives, along with adequate CAPE, mid level shear, and mid level lapse rates, that some strong storms may occur, however still plenty of time to watch this and fine tune everything. The boundary may wash out some on Tuesday, however, just enough of it around to keep some pops in the forecast before a brief period of drier air moves in. 07/Rua && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 635 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 BR/MVFR CIGs with VCSH will improve this afternoon a bit with VFR/MVFR CIGs this afternoon. Winds will be from the S/SE 10-13kts with gusts to around 20 kts. There could be VCTS/TSRA generally north of I-10 this evening, but confidence is low with only a PROB30 for KAEX. && .MARINE... Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Moderate onshore flow is expected to prevail into the weekend amid a tightened pressure gradient between surface high pressure to the east and a series of low pressure systems developing across the Plains. Rain chances should remain low although an isolated light shower or two cannot be ruled out. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 72 90 73 93 / 20 10 0 0 LCH 75 89 76 89 / 10 0 0 0 LFT 76 90 76 90 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 76 89 76 90 / 10 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...30