924
FXUS64 KLCH 111138
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
638 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 424 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

IR satellite imagery shows quite a bit of mid and high level cloud
cover streaming east across the area. Some enhancement in cold
cloud top temperatures has been noted from east central TX into
central LA, coincident with a narrow band of light showers
apparent on KLCH radar, near a weak convergence zone around 850
MB. A few obs sites have indicated lower clouds and even a few
sprinkles reaching the surface.

Otherwise, weak high pressure prevails at the surface with light
northeast winds across the area. Temperatures are running about 5
to 10 degrees cooler than this time yesterday, while a drier
airmass has yielded dewpoints between 10 to 20 degrees lower,
providing a rather pleasant night across the region. Aloft, modest
shortwave ridging has developed over TX, in advance of a large low
pressure system over the SW states per recent UA analysis and WV
imagery.

Despite a break from the rain today, conditions over the coming
days unfortunately do not appear favorable for swollen rivers to
recede and soggy soils to dry out, as a series of disturbances
look to bring increased rain chances from Sunday into Monday and
again from Thursday into Friday.

24

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Dry conditions should prevail today as weak high pressure at the
surface and aloft transit the region. Skies will likely stay
mostly cloudy as mid and high level clouds continue to stream over
the region. Temperatures are expected to rebound back into the
lower 80s this afternoon as winds gradually shift more easterly.

The upper low over the SW US will slowly move east tonight into
Sunday, with flow aloft becoming more west to southwest as low
level winds become more southeasterly. This will begin a moist
advection pattern with PWATs climbing to between 1.7 and 2.0
inches Sunday. Weak disturbances traversing the region in advance
of the low will provide enough lift to produce some widely
scattered showers and storms late tonight into early Sunday. As
the upper low moves into the central plains on Sunday, surface low
pressure will develop across western TX which will aid in lifting
a warm front across the region. Convection will become more
scattered to numerous through the day Sunday, concentrated
primarily along the warm front, with some of the highest rainfall
amounts located from portions of east TX into N/central LA.

Rain chances could briefly diminish late Sunday night into Monday
morning, with another round of showers and storms again on Monday
as the low pressure system approaches the MS Valley. Potentially
heavy rainfall can be expected again across the region. Storm
rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches will be possible from tonight
through Monday night, along with some locally higher amounts.
While there is still some spread among the guidance regarding
where the heaviest rainfall totals can be expected, the latest ERO
from WPC shows much of the area in a SLGT risk (level 2 out of
4), but the potential for a MDT risk is not out of the question
and may be necessitated in future outlooks as this situation
evolves.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

At the start of the period the area will see showers and
thunderstorms moving to the east of the area by Tuesday as a frontal
boundary moves through the region giving us a brief break from heavy
rainfall potential through Wednesday.

Moisture begins to return late Wednesday into Wednesday night as
high moves off to the east. As the next disturbance moves into the
region early Thursday the signals for heavy rainfall returns to the
region as PW`s get above 2 inches. While much of the area is under
the risk for very heavy rainfall most signals continue across
Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana which have been hit by
multiple rounds of heavy rainfall the past month and half. The
greatest question is how fast does the activity move to the east
Friday with differences in the guidance on timing of the front.

Temperatures through the period will be near to slightly above
normal more so on the low temperatures.

27

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period as
BKN (to sometimes SCT) cirrus streams over the region. NE winds
will veer more easterly today, with speeds around 10 KT
diminishing to less than 10 KT tonight. Clouds will gradually
increase and lower from the west tonight. While conditions should
remain VFR, cigs could trend toward MVFR at BPT by 12Z Sunday.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 424 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Moderate offshore flow this morning will gradually diminish and
shift more east to southeast through the day. Onshore flow will
become better established on Sunday as surface high pressure
moves off to the east, and strengthen with lower pressure
developing over the plains. Onshore flow will persist through
midweek until passage of a cold front. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will increase tonight into Sunday, with off and on rain
chances expected through midweek.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  83  64  80  65 /   0  20  40  80
LCH  85  69  83  72 /  10  20  60  60
LFT  85  69  84  73 /  10  10  40  60
BPT  85  70  82  73 /  10  20  70  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...24