242
FXUS64 KLCH 072059
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
359 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Quiet weather is expected for the duration of the short term
with little to no PoPs and mostly sunny/clear skies, however it will
be toasty and humid with above normal temperatures and rising
dewpoints.

The upper level ridge is currently centered over the TX panhandle
with ridging extending over the CWA. Over the course of the short
term period, the ridge will move directly overhead then over the
gulf with near zonal to WNW flow setting up by the end of the period
(Sun Night). Closer to the surface we have the area of high pressure
centered east of the ArkLaTx. This will elongate itself and drift
off to the south and east over the short term. This will allow
southerly flow to return to the CWA.

While the ridge should suppress most of the activity, we could see
some diurnal activity late in the weekend over the waters and in the
southern half of the CWA. Otherwise, expect increasing dewpoints to
yield warmer heat indices in the 97 to 104 range.

Stigger/87

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Morning guidance unveiled what should be a rather unsettled longterm
period. A series of digging trofs over the Great Lakes Region will
both send southward a weak boundary and erode the longstanding high
pressure ridge from the short term period. These two happenings will
allow shower and thunderstorm chances to increase starting Monday.
As the front nears on Monday, expect a localized increase in shower
and thunder storm activity over the area. PWAT values won`t have
much time to rebound, so rainfall totals shouldn`t exacerbate
flooding like we`ve seen in previous weeks; at least at the start of
the longterm period.

From Monday, expect the return of the afternoon convective
thunderstorm pattern. The weak boundary from early in the longterm
period stalls over the coastline acting as the catalyst for daytime
storms.

High temperatures will continue topping out in the low 90s for much
of the longterm period. The only exception being Tuesday when the
very slightly "drier" airmass associated with the front moves in.
This boundary washes out in coming days, thus the return to low 90s.
Heat indices slowly increase through the end of the work week as
well, but should remain less than heat advisory criteria.

11/Calhoun

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

High pressure ridge developing over the region has resulted in few
to no clouds and light, semi-variable winds. Expect this pattern
to prevail through the TAF period.

11/Calhoun

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Light and variable winds will become onshore tonight as surface
high pressure north of the region shifts toward the southeastern
US. A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will then
persist into early next week, becoming somewhat variable as a weak
front stalls near the coast. Dry weather is expected to prevail
through the weekend, with rain chances increasing late this
weekend to early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  94  70  92 /   0   0   0  10
LCH  73  92  74  91 /   0   0   0  10
LFT  74  95  75  93 /   0   0   0  20
BPT  74  93  75  92 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11