750
FXUS64 KLCH 081744
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1244 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Early morning sfc analysis shows a weak frontal boundary draped
across the forecast area at this time, while high pressure lies
behind it centered over the Tennessee Valley. Water vapor imagery
shows the area under the influence of ridging extending from cntl TX
ewd to sern LA. Sfc obs/satellite imagery indicate clear skies in
place over the region while temperatures remain just slightly above
normal (generally mid/upper 70s). Regional 88Ds are PPINE.

The early portion of the forecast remains dry thanks to the
ridging aloft, progged to drift ewd to a position generally
overhead, and the passing sfc boundary, expected to drift swd to
the coast before washing out later today. This boundary will offer
little in the way of a reprieve from our warmer than normal
temperatures with highs today forecast to run in the lower/mid 90s
(cooler near the immediate coast). Combined with dewpoints in the
70s, apparent temps are expected to top out just inside triple
digits for most of the area today.

As we move into Sunday, the ridging aloft is progged to get nudged
swd while weakening in response to a series of shortwaves
rounding a cutoff low over ern Canada passing to our north.
Meanwhile, srly low-level flow will maintain very moist/steamy
conditions across the area...the increasing low-level moisture
mainly just resulting in a little better cloud cover. With a
decaying cap per forecast soundings, perhaps a little lift from
the passing disturbance and a likely afternoon sea breeze, suppose
a shower or two can`t be totally ruled out late in the day...for
now, keeping rain chances below the criteria for their inclusion.
Temperatures are expected to be a degree or two lower than today.

Rain chances return to the area in earnest on Monday as troffing
aloft further removes the influence of the ridge, while also
helping usher in another sfc boundary. Expect scattered
showers/storms to linger into the evening hours before dissipating
with loss of heating.

25

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

A weak frontal boundary is progged to dig into the region before
stalling Tuesday. No appreciable change in airmass is anticipated
behind the fropa even if it does actually make it offshore which
isn`t a foregone conclusion. What the boundary will do is deepen the
moisture profile allowing for scattered afternoon convection Tuesday
afternoon. As the front washes out Wednesday, an upper trof slowly
advancing Southeast out of the southern plains will cut off before
drifting to the coast Thursday. The low will favor daily scattered
afternoon convection through the end of the week, but available mid
and upper level moisture does appear to limit coverage. The highest
PoPs will be across South Central Louisiana where deeper moisture
profiles will exist.

There are considerable differences with regards to the evolution of
this cut off low, but the general signal is that it will be absorbed
by a weak tropical disturbance moving into the eastern gulf late in
the week. How this interaction occurs and the resulting feature will
have a large impact on the forecast in the day 7-9 timeframe, but
a wetter pattern is looking increasingly likely into next weekend.

Temperatures will remain seasonable through the extended with little
day to day variability. Afternoon highs will climb into the lower
90s with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Consistent dewpoints
in low to mid 70s will produce maximum heat indices around 100 each
afternoon.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR CIGs and VIS ongoing and expected to last for a majority of
the period with a possible exception to the overnight hours. Some
of the models are hinting at overnight light patchy fog in the
06-15Z period. While widespread dense fog is not expected, a few
terminals could see patchy dense fog in the short hours before
sunrise with fog dissipating after that.
Stigger/87

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

A light/variable flow is expected on the area waters today with
the sfc boundary drifting nearby. Thereafter, an onshore flow is
expected to resume by tonight, lingering into early next week when
a frontal passage is forecast...as of now, not seeing any
headlines on the CWF anywhere during the forecast period.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  92  71  90 /   0   0   0  30
LCH  74  90  73  91 /   0  10  10  40
LFT  75  93  75  93 /   0  10   0  40
BPT  74  92  74  93 /   0  10   0  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...87