611
FXUS64 KLCH 101756
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1256 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Early morning sfc analysis shows a cool front located roughly along
the I-20 corridor from nern TX to cntl MS at this time while high
pressure lingers over the nrn Gulf. Water vapor imagery shows
troffing in place over the ern 1/2 of the country, emanating from
a cutoff low over nrn ME...an initial shortwave is noted dropping
through the Ozarks this morning while another is noted further
upstream in the Plains. mid/upper-level ridging centered roughly
overhead at the moment. Satellite imagery shows patchy thick
cirrus from convection near the front beginning to impact the
area, while sfc obs don`t show a lot of lower cloud cover around
the area. Local 88Ds show just scattered nocturnal showers over
the coastal waters, although coverage is slowly increasing.

After a few days of drying out, rain chances return to the area
today as the Ozarks disturbance continues swd, taking the sfc front
with it into the forecast area. With forecast soundings still
indicating improving moisture (mean RH values to 70 percent and PWAT
values to 1.9 inches which is roughly the 90th percentile per SPC
climo), expect scattered showers/storms to gradually develop across
the area, initially near the coast (nocturnal activity moving
inland) and across the nrn extremes (combo of disturbance and
frontal influences) before filling in the middle. This activity will
linger past sunset before dissipating with loss of heating.

Tuesday appears to be a day with more of a widely scattered
convection potential across the area as the front stalls over the
coastal waters and potentially begins to lift back nwd towards the
coast. Meanwhile, another disturbance aloft sweeps into the region.

Wednesday`s looking like more of the same, although the next
shortwave in the series appears to keep most of its better lift out
west of the forecast area...thus just slim POPs are in the forecast
for the end of the short term.

Temperatures are progged to be rather seasonal throughout the short
term period.

25

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Forecast guidance continues to trend drier Thursday and Friday as
there is better agreement on drier air advecting into the region
around the eastern periphery of a strong ridge over the southwestern
U.S. This should keep convection at bay along whatever is left of
the quasistationary frontal boundary just off the coast. This drier
air aloft will likely mix down to the surface both Thursday and
Friday afternoons bringing dewpoints down into the low to mid 60s.
This will certainly be beneficial from an apparent temperature
standpoint, but with RH values falling into the 30s, a low end risk
for grass/marsh fires could develop. The area has been wet enough
recently that there shouldn`t be any significant fire risk from other
fuels. The lower dewpoints and mostly clear skies should allow low
temps to fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s Friday morning

Surface winds will turn back out of the south late Saturday
afternoon in advance of a closely watched tropical disturbance
moving across the central Gulf of Mexico. Latest guidance depicts
this disturbance tracking further West into the northwestern or
northern gulf and trended PoPs upward Sunday to account for this,
but there has been a lot of windshield wipering (back and forth)
amongst guidance in recent days so forecast confidence Sunday is
lower than normal.

In the interest of rumor suppression, it continues to be worth
mentioning that there has been no consistent guidance indicating
tropical cyclone development at this time. That said, the wave will
have the potential to become a flash flood threat across parts of
the gulf coast by next weekend.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Weakness aloft has resulted in area showers and isolated
thunderstorms to form across Gulf terminals with ceilings ranging
from 2500 to 5000 feet. Expect this trend to continue with all
terminals expecting at least vicinity thunderstorms through the
early evening.

With growing updrafts, tropical funnels will be possible through
20z or so, and when updrafts come crashing down, variable winds
and heavy rain will be possible.

After sundown, expect convective activity to diminish with light
variable winds and generally VFR ceilings. Some guidance is
hinting at light ground fog again overnight, but confidence is
low. For now, mentions of this were not included in TAFs.

11/Calhoun

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  66  89  66  88 /  20  10   0  10
LCH  72  91  70  90 /  30  30  10  20
LFT  73  92  71  91 /  30  30  10  20
BPT  73  93  72  91 /  30  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...11