729
FXUS64 KLCH 090845
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
345 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Early morning sfc analysis shows the area under the influence of
high pressure centered over the sern CONUS and ridging wwd,
maintaining a srly low-level flow. Water vapor imagery mid/upper-
level ridging centered roughly overhead at the moment. Sfc obs
indicate some lower cloud cover beginning to develop, otherwise
generally clear skies are in place over the region. Local 88Ds
remain PPINE.

The ridging aloft is expected to maintain one last rain-free day
today although shortwave energy passing to our north is progged to
begin breaking it down. Along with increasing cloud cover on the
good onshore low-level flow. wouldn`t be shocked to see an
afternoon shower or two developing over our TX zones given the
better moisture and less capping forecasted over that area.
Otherwise expecting another warm day across the forecast area,
especially cntl LA where more highs in the mid 90s are
anticipated. Combined with dewpoints in the 70s, max apparent
temps are forecast to just nudge their way into triple digits
again today.

Rain chances return to the area tomorrow as troffing over the ern
1/3 of the country shunts the ridge farther swwd into Mexico.
Furthermore, a sfc frontal system is progged to slip swd into the
forecast area. Add daytime heating and continued good moisture
(forecast soundings indicate mean RH values in the 60 to 70
percent range and PWAT values to 1.9 inches which is roughly the
90th percentile per SPC climo) to the front and lack of capping,
looks like scattered showers/storms are in the offing and expected
to linger into the evening hours before dissipating with loss of
heating.

Tuesday appears to be another day of scattered convection across
the area as the front stalls over the coastal waters and another
disturbance aloft sweeps into the region.

25

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

An unseasonable quasistationary frontal boundary is expected to be
sitting somewhere near the coast or just offshore Wednesday morning.
Compared to this time yesterday, guidance is depicting some modestly
drier air to be in place across the region with dewpoints in the mid
60s to lower 70s which may be noticeable given the recent spate of
mid to upper 70 dewpoints across the region over the last few days.
Unlikely to be noticed are any appreciable change in daily mins and
maxes which are still expected to remain in the mid 70s and lower
90s respectively through the end of the week.

The proximity of the stalled surface front and an upper level low
progressing Southeast from Oklahoma to the coast will support widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, but these
are not expected to make it into the overnight hours. Operational
models are trending drier Thursday and Friday as they depict drier
mid and upper level air wrapping into the region around the western
side of a weak tropical disturbance moving into the eastern gulf.
However, ensembles are much more divided and latest NBM continues to
paint scattered convection across the region both afternoons. Opted
to stick with that for the time being, but if the drier trend
continues, will likely lower PoPs late in the week with future
packages.

The weekend remains highly dependent on the trajectory of
the aforementioned gulf disturbance. As of now, the vast majority of
moisture and precip looks to remain from the Mississippi gulf coast
eastward, but some guidance does indicate a more westward track
across the central gulf that would result in increasing PoPs across
south central Louisiana. Regardless of the exact track of the low,
it is worth mentioning explicitly that, as of now, there has been no
reliable guidance indicating that this disturbance will develop into
anything more than an enhanced rain maker for portions of the gulf
next weekend.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Only significant change since the previous TAF package was to
include the mention of fog at LFT and ARA later tonight/near
sunrise. Guidance is still hitting on fog more so at other sites
but there is at least some agreement with fog moving into Acadiana
prior to sunrise, so went ahead and added tempo groups to account
for this. Otherwise, no changes with light winds and VFR
conditions prevailing.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

A mainly light onshore flow is expected to linger into Monday
when a frontal passage is forecast, which will usher in another
brief shot of light/variable flow on the coastal waters...as of
now, not seeing any headlines on the CWF anywhere during the
forecast period.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  73  90  68 /   0   0  30  10
LCH  91  75  91  73 /   0   0  40  10
LFT  95  76  93  74 /   0   0  50  10
BPT  92  76  93  74 /  10   0  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...17