Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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912 FXUS64 KLIX 100920 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 420 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday Night) Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 The first 24 to 36 hours of the forecast are somewhat uncertain. Currently we have widely scattered showers that have been developing off and on along the SELA coast and SSW into the Gulf. This appears to be associated with a surge of LL moisture slowly moving to the NNW. We also have a weak front pushing south and at 8z was already through central AL, central MS and into central LA. This front will continue to slowly work south and is expected to approach the coast tonight. Prior to the front getting here we will likely warm up fairly quick and temps are expected in the lower to mid 90s again. The question is can we get any storms. Most of the guidance suggest there is a chance but we will be looking at widely scattered storms at best and likely confined to 2 general areas. First and most likely location`s to at least get some convection today will be coastal MS. This front should approach that area this afternoon while a weak seabreeze will likely have already developed. The combination of these two should be enough to get some convection. Mid lvl temps will be a touch cooler in that area as well so it should be a little easier to get some storms there. The other location could be the southwest half/3rd of the CWA. A light wind field should allow for both the seabreeze and lake breeze to develop. We should see the seabreeze come north from the SELA coast (Terrebonne Bay), while another portion of the seabreeze moves northeast from the Atchafalaya Bay, and then these 2 will likely interact with a southward/southwestward moving lake breeze. All of these boundaries will likely interact at some point and that is usually a good catalyst for convection. The one problem is currently we have rather dry air over much of the CWA but that there are 2 areas of deeper moisture with the first associated with the front but the second is a plume of deeper moisture west of the Atchafalaya Basin and that is expected to get squeezed to the east some today. across the northwest rain may be a little more difficult to come by today. Tomorrow, may be the one fairly pleasant day, well pleasant for Summer. As that front pushes just off the coast we will see drier air work into the region. In addition LL temps will take a momentary hit with h925 temps possibly ranging from 22 to 24. That should yield highs in the upper 80s to a few mid 90s. But with low dewpoints the heat index will not be an issue. The one possible caveat could be the immediate coast and that will have a lot to do with how far the front makes it south. If it eventually stalls over the coast or just south then there will likely be isolated to widely scattered convection across the SELA coast. If it can punch far enough into the Gulf then the coast will likely be rain free as well. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Medium range models and ensembles all seem to be a fair agreement and continue to trend with a drier and warmer fcst. There are some differences in the details on the back end of the fcst however the same general conditions are being advertised. Biggest difference comes by the end of the weekend and into next week and how the pattern evolves which will dictate where the deep tropical moisture will eventually go. Overall NBM looks good, too many uncertainties or small deviations to could have a sizable adjustments to the forecast. Heading into the 2nd half of the work week we will begin with a lingering weakness/trough axis draped across the southeastern CONUS into south-central TX. Many times in the Summer this could be the final piece of the puzzle to get decent convective coverage. The biggest problem is the front that came through Monday evening and the rather extreme positive tilt to this really helped to drive the deeper moisture south into the Gulf. This likely keeps most if any convection we see along the SELA coast or in the Gulf on Wednesday. LL temps will already be starting to tick up from Tuesday and h925 temps could be back around 25C. This should have little trouble leading to highs getting back into the lower to mid 90s. Thursday and Friday that weakens will begin to shift southeast and we will see the ridge that has been sitting over the 4 corners shift east. The rising hghts along with increasing LL temps will lead to warmer conditions. By Friday we could be dealing with highs in the upper 90s in a good chunk of the CWA. By this weekend we could be dealing with the hottest weekend of the year so far. However, a lot will depend on the placement of the ridge over the southeastern CONUS, a s/w west of the ridge (which is currently digging and cutting off southwest of the CA coast) and how the an area of disturbed weather and rich tropical moisture coming out of the western Caribbean and into the Gulf evolves. If the Pacific disturbance remains deep enough it may erode the western edge of the ridge enough to allow that area of disturbed weather to ridge up through the western Gulf and could bring a rather healthy dose of rain to the area beginning Sunday. If the ridge holds true then Saturday and Sunday could be...HOT. H925 temps could be approaching 30C and this would have little trouble leading to a few locations hitting the century mark. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 VFR conditions are expected for the whole forecast cycle. Winds will generally be light. There is a low chance of shower/thunderstorms especially tomorrow afternoon but confidence on specific impacts is still low so left out mentions of VCTS for now. -BL && .MARINE... Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Current onshore flow will continue through today until a weak front pushes into the northern Gulf later tonight. Behind that front offshore winds will develop for the inner waters through Wednesday before the front washes out and we see a return to onshore winds by Thursday afternoon. By Friday and into Saturday we could see a slight increase in the gradient with moderate onshore flow developing. In addition we will likely begin to see a swell develop out of the southeast as persistent southeast winds start to develop Friday night across the Gulf from the Yucatan channel to the north-central Gulf through the weekend. /CAB/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 91 65 89 63 / 40 10 10 0 BTR 96 72 92 70 / 30 10 20 0 ASD 95 71 92 69 / 30 30 20 0 MSY 93 77 90 76 / 40 30 30 10 GPT 93 73 91 71 / 40 40 10 10 PQL 95 70 93 68 / 40 30 10 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CAB LONG TERM....CAB AVIATION...BL MARINE...CAB