701
FXUS64 KLIX 081741
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1241 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

High pressure dominates both upper and lower levels of the
atmosphere through Sunday keeping the area dry and hot. As the
high pressure shifts eastward, winds rotating around the high will
become southerly this afternoon. The sky will remain clear until
Sunday morning when a few clouds may develop with moisture
beginning to return from the Gulf on the south winds.

High temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s both days, but
daytime humidities will be relatively low, on the order of 50%, so
the Apparent Temperature stay in the low 100s. Therefore, no heat
products are needed. However, because it is still relatively early
in the season and most people are still acclimating to the
summertime heat/humidity, everyone is urged to use caution if
working outside. Taking breaks to cool down and drinking plenty of
fluids will help to prevent heat related illness.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

An upper low over New England and a moderate ridge over the Four
Corners will start the extended period. The Low will trail a weak
front that will drop down to the vicinity of the coast Monday into
Tuesday. The front, combined with Gulf moisture, pushes afternoon
PoPs into the 50 range. However, the question of the exact
location of the front, further north in our area or further south
toward the coast will have a bearing on exactly where rain will
occur. That said, for this time of year my thinking is that the
front and focus for more rain will be on the central to northern
side of our area.

As the week progresses another upper disturbance will be moving
into the lower Mississippi Valley from the northwest. There is
quite a bit of uncertainty regarding how this system will
eventually evolve and move, but it looks to interact with a plume
of tropical moisture emanating from the Caribbean to result in
more increased rain chances and possible surface low development.
The resultant forecast calls for continued scattered showers and
thunderstorms Friday into the weekend. But we will likely see
changes in the forecast with at least a couple periods of more
enhanced rain chances as the eventual evolution of the system
becomes a bit clearer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the day at all terminals.
Light easterly winds becoming southerly thru afternoon and
evening. Could see some patchy fog at MCB and BTR per guidance
around sunrise but will clear quickly afterwards. Next TAF period
could include VCTS line for HUM for pop up storms returning to
forecast on Sunday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Winds have made the transition around the high pressure, returning
to southerly and remaining light. A frontal system will slowly
progress southeast through early next week that should stall
offshore Wednesday bringing northerly winds to the area once
again. All of these winds will be 5-10 knots or less, but locally
higher winds and seas will be possible with any storms that
develop starting Sunday into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  93  70  90 /   0   0   0  30
BTR  74  96  75  94 /   0  10   0  40
ASD  74  95  74  95 /   0  10   0  40
MSY  76  93  77  93 /   0  10   0  40
GPT  74  93  75  93 /   0   0  10  40
PQL  71  95  74  95 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...TJS
MARINE...DS