Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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271 FXUS64 KLIX 220449 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1149 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 An upper level ridge is currently centered over central Mexico just southwest of Brownsville Texas. The axis of this high currently extends northeastward across the southeastern US to the Ohio River Valley. It will suppress southward the next couple days as an upper level trough currently moving through the Northern/Central Plains tracks northeastward across the northern Mississippi River Valley. More locally, not much change expected to 500mb heights which means slightly above normal temperatures persist. In addition, this will keep rain chances out of the forecast. Otherwise, thats about it. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday night) Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Like the near-term, really not much to talk about in the extended portion of the forecast. High pressure will maintain hot and rainless conditions. Temperatures will creep up a few degrees the rest of the forecast period as the upper ridge nearby strengthens. A few locations could approach record highs this weekend. At the moment, it doesn`t appear that dewpoints will be high enough to support heat indicies anywhere near heat advisory, but should at least exceed 100 late this week. The ridge will continue to be suppressed southward as another trough tracks across the mid Mississippi River Valley this weekend. That`ll eventually allow for some afternoon convection but currently doesn`t look like that`ll happen until sometime next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Currently VFR across all terminals. Quite a bit of cirrus cloud cover moving toward the area from convection to the west, but this shouldn`t have any significant impacts. Still at least a low end potential for fog around sunrise, with KMCB and KHUM the main prospects, but the cirrus may preclude that. If fog does occur, it should burn off quickly by 14z. Could also be a very brief period of MVFR ceilings (FL025) in a few locations as cumulus field develops tomorrow morning, but should lift above FL030 pretty quickly. && .MARINE... Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Surface high pressure centered northeast of the local area will slowly shift from the Carolinas to the western Atlantic from now to early next week. This will keep onshore flow in place with a gradual shift in wind direction from southeast to south. The pressure gradient will generally support wind speeds around 10 knots with occasional periods of speeds closer to 15 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 66 86 67 88 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 71 91 72 93 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 70 88 70 90 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 73 88 74 90 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 70 85 71 86 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 68 88 68 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ME LONG TERM....ME AVIATION...RW MARINE...ME