Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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577 FXUS64 KLIX 250915 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 415 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Upper ridge centered over Mexico early this morning with a shortwave moving eastward across Mississippi north of Interstate 20. Convection associated with that shortwave is well north of the local area and isn`t expected to become a factor in today`s weather other than to produce cirrus across the area. Light southerly flow continues across the area, making for a rather warm and humid night. Temperatures at 3 AM CDT were in the mid 70s to lower 80s, with dew points only a degree or two lower at best for most areas. Main concern with this forecast package in the short term will be heat related. High temperatures should be in the lower to middle 90s across most of the area both today and Sunday, although a sea breeze cold hold areas right at the coast to the upper 80s if the sea breeze kicks in soon enough. Maximum heat index values are expected to top out generally in the 100 to 105F range both days. This is short of our advisory criteria (108F), but with it being the first time this season that much of the area will be experiencing those levels of discomfort, having a way to keep hydrated and cool off will be helpful. Overnight lows will be in the 70s, which is about 5-10F above normal for late May. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 While ridging remains centered over Mexico, changes around the periphery of the ridge will be dictating the weather across the local area. Unfortunately, the global models aren`t in particularly good agreement on the details. A northern stream shortwave is expected to push a cold front southward toward the local area over the next few days, but the ECMWF operational solution is much more aggressive with this feature, bringing precipitation chances into northern portions of the area Sunday night. The GFS solution is much drier, and the majority of ECMWF ensemble members favor a drier solution, with the NBM numbers supporting this. We`ll keep the forecast dry until Monday afternoon, when soundings are at least a bit more supportive of convective development. Beyond that point, the operational global models essentially flip their positions when it comes to rain chances, with the GFS solution being more favorable to development than the ECMWF. A majority of ECMWF ensemble members show no significant precipitation chances for most of the CWA beyond Monday. NBM numbers produce at least low end chances for afternoon convection through midweek, which isn`t a major departure from what was in previous package. We will continue to see uncomfortable humidity levels on Memorial Day, with maximum heat index values pushing pretty close to advisory levels across western portions of the area if convection fails to develop. With a trough deepening across the eastern third of the country early in the week, the northwesterly mid level flow across the area should push somewhat drier air into the area. This may happen as early as Tuesday, with more agreement on it occurring Wednesday and beyond. This should at least knock down humidity levels with dew points falling into the 60s on Wednesday through Friday. That will result in cooler overnight lows, as well as possibly knocking a degree or two off of high temperatures. However, temperatures will still remain near or above normal. Didn`t see an obvious target of opportunity to diverge from NBM numbers. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1131 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 VFR conditions will eventually drop to MVFR respectively. MCB continues to have a lower VIS signal closer to sunrise. Flight categories will improve shortly after sunrise on Saturday. Winds will again remain southerly or perhaps a little west of due south and light generally less than 10 knots. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Onshore flow likely to predominate for much of at least the first half of the forecast period. As the frontal boundary pushes southward toward the waters, the gradient may tighten just enough to necessitate Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines late Sunday night into Monday across a large portion of the waters. It doesn`t appear that the open waters will see a clear frontal passage on Tuesday (and might not for the next 4 months or so). As the front washes out, the pressure gradient becomes weak enough that winds will be driven by differential heating processes that we normally see during the summer. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 91 71 92 73 / 10 0 0 10 BTR 95 76 95 78 / 10 0 0 0 ASD 93 75 93 77 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 93 77 92 78 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 89 76 90 77 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 91 73 91 76 / 10 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...RDF MARINE...RW