242
FXUS64 KLUB 042338
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
638 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

18Z upper air analysis reveals an amplifying ridge over the far
northeastern Pacific Ocean as a shortwave trough pivots along the
apex of this ridge across south-central Canada and into the northern
Great Plains. Smaller-scale, shortwave perturbations within the belt
of northwesterly flow advecting over the central and southern Rocky
Mountains were evident as the troughing becomes more-basal with
southern extent, and bands of cirrus were advecting in from the
northwest across the CWA as an ill-defined vorticity lobe becomes
increasingly stretched and deformed within the eastern quadrant of
the ridge. At the surface, a lee cyclone was located to the
northwest of CDS near McLean, TX, as per recent METAR and West Texas
Mesonet (WTM) data The cold front was drawn westward along the I-40
corridor to AMA, and bent to the southwest along HWY-60 to as far
south as Muleshoe on recent WTM data. The dryline also exhibited a
wavy pattern, extending southward from the lee cyclone and into the
eastern Rolling Plains as westerly flow rounding the basal trough
aloft, and the gradually deepening cyclone, enhances the bulging.
Dewpoints ranged from the upper 30s along the I-27 corridor to the
upper 60s in the moist sector in vicinity of the lee cyclone across
the extreme southeastern TX PH. Dry, westerly flow will persist
throughout the rest of the afternoon across the Caprock and western
Rolling Plains ahead of the southward-moving cold front as
temperatures continue to soar into the upper 90s at this time.

An isolated, severe thunderstorm remains in the forecast for the
extreme southeastern TX PH and the northern Rolling Plains late this
afternoon and into the early evening. The additional southward
progression of the cold front should remain impeded until the subtle
perturbation embedded within the basal trough propagates overhead
later this afternoon, with its movement further impeded by the
intense dry-bulbing within the dry sector as the boundary-layer
mixes into the mid-levels. The airmass across the aforementioned
locales has fully recovered from the post-MCS outflow, with no
indications of an outflow boundary present on WTM nor satellite
data; and the presence of the cirrostratus bands has prevented any
high-based cu from developing within these areas at this time.
However, there is a cu field developing in the post-frontal airmass,
indicating some degree of moist, isentropic ascent occurring in wake
of the front. As the lee cyclone deepens a few more mb and rotates
towards the extreme southeastern TX PH, low-level convergence will
increase accordingly, especially as the cold front crosses south of
the I-40 corridor in the eastern TX PH. The spatiotemporal extent of
convection will be small, with one or two multi-cellular clusters
developing and posing a risk for severe-caliber wind and hail owing
to high LCLs and steep lapse rates aloft. Initial cell development
may be intense as low-level convergence maximizes upon the arrival
of the cold front; however, detrainment of updrafts should occur as
high-level flow veers northward and the cold front undercuts inflow.
Therefore, the 10-percent PoPs have been maintained and confined
mainly to the extreme southeastern TX PH. Storm motion will be from
north-to-south at around 25 kt (30 mph).

The cold front will move south of the CWA near 05Z/midnight, with
rapid moistening occurring area-wide. Lingering cirrostratus decks
aloft and northeasterly winds at around 10 mph should prevent total
saturation occurring, thus curtailing the potential for fog across
portions of the Rolling Plains. A weak anticyclone will move into
the south-central Great Plains by tomorrow, and easterly winds
between 10-15 mph will keep temperatures below the triple-digit
threshold area-wide despite strengthening of the Rex Block over the
western U.S. and northeastern Pacific Ocean.

Sincavage

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Models are in good agreement through the rest of this week depicting
a western CONUS ridge mostly being in control of our weather. Hot
temperatures will persist each afternoon with the center of an
approximately 594dm ridge not too far off to our west. Flow aloft
will generally be weak being in close proximity to the center of the
upper ridge. Stronger flow aloft along with several short waves
moving over top of the ridge late this week into the weekend will
increase precipitation chances mostly across the Central Plains into
the Texas Panhandle. The upper level pattern will represent more of
a summertime like depiction. Mid level moisture monsoon like flow
will stream northward across Mexico into Far West Texas and New
Mexico creating daily convective chances off the higher terrain of
eastern New Mexico. Overall, convective chances look to be decreased
from the previous few model runs among this summer like pattern.
Model differences creep into the forecast late in the weekend into
early next week but the end result is coincidentally the same. An
upper low near Baja California will move onshore this weekend but
models differ in the evolution of this low as it moves across the
southwestern US. Uncertainties arise with regards in how this system
will phase with the larger trough across the Great Lakes into the
central US. We could see interaction from the short wave trough or
more of a northwest flow storm situation during the time period of
early next week. Either way, convection chances will increase during
this time period. Some relief from the heat may then enter the area
early next week with a cold front moving through the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this TAF period. A
cold front is currently moving south through the area and
switching winds around to the north. A few thunderstorms have
developed in the wake of the cold front however the instability
will remain across the far southeastern Texas Panhandle. This
means that CDS may see some thunderstorm activity for the first
few hours of this TAF period but confidence on any direct impacts
remains low at this time. Winds will continue to veer this
evening becoming northeasterly and then eventually easterly by
tomorrow morning. IFR ceilings may develop in the vicinity of CDS
however confidence on these ceilings directly impacting the
airport remain too low at this time to include a mention in the
TAF.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...58