Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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189 FXUS64 KLUB 211942 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 242 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Warm and dry conditions will persist for the remainder of today with breezy westerly winds. Highs will be cooler than yesterday, however should still top out in the low 90s. A surface cold front will track across the region around sunrise Wednesday morning. Weak forcing associated with upper shortwaves propagating through the broader longwave trough as well as a subtle low-level jet will be enough to constitute at least slight chances of showers and thunderstorms for the southeastern Rolling Plains. Some high-res models indicate SBCAPE approaching 4000 J/kg. While that may be a bit overdone, the relatively higher instability combined with favorable mid-level lapse rates would suggest large hail being the main threat should any storms become severe. Nonetheless, much of the area looks to remain quiet in the stable airmass behind the front. This will brief a brief reprieve from the warmer temperatures, with much cooler highs ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Wednesday night, the stalled cold front will lift northward giving way to the return of southerly surface flow. Increased low level moisture overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning will give way to dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Upslope moist ascent will give way to moistening in the low levels paired with warm 850mb temperatures and a decent capping inversion. A few showers and elevated thunderstorms are possible with small hail as the main threat. A lee low will develop in eastern Colorado as the upper low swings across the Northern Rockies. The dryline will mix eastward and sharpen through the afternoon hours Thursday. Most models mix the dryline east of the Rolling Plains; however, the NAM continues to keep the dryline stretched along a line near the Caprock Escarpment. Given majority of model consensus, the current forecast maintains the NBM PoPs which keeps all but a sliver of slight chance thunderstorms across the far eastern Rolling Plains. Ample instability east of the dryline will give way to the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms to develop through the afternoon and evening hours across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma. Storms will intensify quickly and storm motion will be to the northeast at a quick clip. Therefore, if the NAMs setup of the dryline comes to fruition, any storm that develops across the Rolling Plains will be fast to move out of the forecast area. However, prior to leaving the area any storm that does develop could be capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. Thursday`s storm potential heavily relies on how far east the dryline mixes. West of the dryline, conditions will be very dry and low end breezy with the return of elevated fire weather concerns. A weak cold front will swing south across the forecast area Friday morning and stall across the Permian Basin. Depending on the exact placement of the stalled front, temperatures may range 5 to 10 degrees from north to south across the area. A shortwave trough will swing across Saturday with a lee low developing across southeast Colorado. The dryline will setup farther east with hot, dry and breezy conditions. In the wake of the shortwave will be another upper low across the Northern Plains with mostly westerly flow aloft. This will give way to another lee low developing across eastern Colorado. Once again the dryline will be displaced farther east with downsloping westerly surface winds giving way to continued hot, dry and breezy conditions. A weak cold front Monday will give way to slightly cooler, but still near normal temperatures in the 80s. In addition to the hot and dry conditions, elevated fire weather concerns will be possible through the weekend across the western South Plains. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Breezy westerly winds will persist into this evening. A cold front will move through the region Wednesday morning and winds will again increase out of the northeast through the afternoon, potentially gusting up to 30 kts at KLBB and KPVW. VFR CIGs/VIS will continue through the TAF period. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...19