Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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618 FXUS64 KLUB 210522 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1222 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 147 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 The dryline will retreat back onto the southern South Plains and into the extreme southeastern Texas Panhandle tonight but will quickly mix eastward after sunrise Tuesday. A short wave trough aloft will approach the area early Tuesday morning resulting in a strengthening surface cyclone in the pre-dawn hours in western Kansas. As the short wave trough moves onto the Plains after sunrise the surface cyclone will deepen and move off northeastward into the Northern Plains dragging the dryline with it. This dryline will likely be east of the FA before the afternoon leaving the FA in dry, westerly surface winds. Deep boundary layer mixing will occur in the wake of the dryline up to roughly 650mb or so. In the morning hours, winds at this level will be ripping around 40-50kt from the southwest. However, as mixing increases, these wind maxima aloft will be moving east with much less westerly winds aloft in the afternoon. Wind speeds will therefore be breezy but not be able to reach the potential of the strong winds aloft in the morning. As cyclonic flow aloft continues on Tuesday, additional surface lee cyclogenesis will occur across northeastern New Mexico. Lower heights tomorrow will bring cooler temperatures but will still be well above seasonal averages. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 147 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 A series of upper level shortwaves will propagate through the base of a longwave trough on Wednesday. This combined with the passage surface cold front should be enough to drive shower and thunderstorm activity over portions of the area. Models show the instability axis generally sitting along the southern Rolling Plains and the latest PoP forecast reflects higher chances there. In any case, much of the threat will be off to the east of the CWA. A dryline will develop from west to east on Thursday morning. Potentially high dewpoints in the mid-to-upper 60s may remain off the Caprock into through early Thursday afternoon. Given the expected higher instability values, any storms that form in this area may become severe. This all said, forcing parameters remain unimpressive and uncertainly still remains with regards to how and where the aforementioned airmasses will interact and the forecast will likely be more fine-tuned going forward. A dry, westerly/southwesterly flow will bring a return of hot and dry conditions into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 VFR conditions to continue through the TAF period. A Pacific cold front will sweep eastward across the area Wednesday morning with breezy and gusty west winds at the terminals until sunset when winds will diminish and back to south. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...07