341
FXUS64 KLZK 040002
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
702 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Tricky forecast on tap in the short term with multiple storm systems
set to move through the state over the next 24 hours. Currently the
remnants of an early morning system is pushing east of Little Rock
and continues to weaken.  These storms have created quite a bit of
stability to the atmosphere across the northern half of the state.

A second line of storms is pushing into western Arkansas as I type,
however with the more stable air in place across northern and
central parts of the state from this mornings convection, the severe
weather threat across that area is fairly low.  However, the
southern half of the state remains prime for severe weather with
ample SB CAPE in place across those portions of the state.

Later this evening, Hi-Res CAMS are showing yet another round of
showers and thunderstorms to move into western Arkansas during the
overnight/early morning hours on Tuesday. While models disagree in
the strength of the system, they do agree that there will be an
additional round of rain to the region.

Beyond the near term, nearly zonal flow aloft will continue with
continued short wave troughs...the next being early Wednesday
morning as yet another storm system is forecast to move through the
state.

Despite this unsettled weather, temperatures will remain right
around normal for this time of year. High temperatures will be in
the mid to upper 80`s with lows ranging from the 60`s to lower 70`s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

A break in precip chances will be in the forecast for the Thu-Fri
period. H500 NW flow will be in place with a sfc ridge extending
south into the state behind a front. Drier air and slightly cooler
temperatures will be noted by Friday with temperatures on Thursday
expected to be quite hot.

Rain chances return to the forecast by the weekend into early next
week as a new front sinks south toward the state and becomes the
focus for additional showers and thunderstorms at times.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Line of storms will cont to impact eastern and southeast AR early
this evening, with MVFR/IFR conds at times mainly at KPBF and
KLLQ. Rain wl cont to taper off from the west this evening behind
the convection. Looking at VFR conds thereafter, with some low
clouds forming later tngt resulting in MVFR/low end VFR ceilings.

Low fcst confidence conts regarding convective trends heading
into Tue. Included PROB30 groups late tngt and Tue mrng, mainly
based on the HRRR trends attm.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...44