492
FXUS64 KLZK 312250 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
550 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Unsettled weather has returned to the Natural State over the past 24
hours. Several rounds of rain/embedded thunder have contd to affect
the FA today. Along with the clouds and rainfall, a stationary fntl
bndry was situated along the Highway 67/167 and I-30 corridor. This
has resulted in quite the range of temps at mid aftn, with 70s and
lower 80s common, with 60s noted over NW AR.

One upper impulse is currently in the process of departing north AR,
with lingering showers noted. A more potent upper system (MCV) was
located ovr SW AR. Where cloud cover has thinned out, daytime heating
is allowing sctd convection to form. A few of these storms could pulse
up and possibly bring some gusty winds, we are not looking for organized
severe storms into this evening.

Once this aforementioned MCV moves out of the FA later tngt, PoPs wl
be diminishing fm the west heading into early Sat. Expect patchy fog
and low clouds to return late tngt into early Sat. Conds wl improve
thereafter as W/NW winds return and allow the clouds to start
eroding. THis wl be short-lived as another weather maker brings
rain chcs back to the state on Sun.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

More of the same as we enter the work week with additional
shortwaves expected to move through the midsouth providing continued
chances of shower and thunderstorm activity. With MCS season upon
us, will need to monitor overnight activity Sunday night and
possibly Monday night.

Relief, for at least part of the state, is possible by mid week
where long term models are indicating a strong Upper Ridge to build
over the SW Conus. Modified the grids to better reflect this pattern
with higher POPs across the NE half of the forecast area.
Temperatures will generally be at or above seasonal normals during
the day, and slightly milder than average at night due to the
increased cloud cover and RH through the majority of the
overnight periods.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Some scattered SHRA and a few isolated TSRA will remain possible
this evening before convection decreases in coverage overnight.
Once any precip ends...some patchy fog could be seen through just
after sunrise. By mid to late morning Sat...chance for any precip
will move east of most of the area...with VFR conditions
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     65  83  65  86 /  90  30  10  30
Camden AR         67  87  69  85 /  60  20  20  40
Harrison AR       63  79  62  83 /  60  10  10  30
Hot Springs AR    65  85  68  85 /  50  20  10  40
Little Rock   AR  67  85  68  87 /  70  20  10  30
Monticello AR     68  86  70  86 /  80  30  20  40
Mount Ida AR      64  85  66  84 /  40  20  10  40
Mountain Home AR  64  80  63  85 /  70  20   0  20
Newport AR        66  82  66  86 / 100  40  10  30
Pine Bluff AR     67  86  70  86 /  80  20  20  40
Russellville AR   66  85  66  86 /  50  10  10  30
Searcy AR         66  84  66  86 /  80  20  10  30
Stuttgart AR      67  85  69  85 /  90  30  10  40

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....61
AVIATION...62