901
FXUS64 KLZK 282344
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
644 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Recent observations indicate mid and high clouds covering the
southern half of the forecast area. This cloud cover is in
association with a MCS not moving southward across southeast Texas
and southwest Louisiana.  Near normal temperatures prevailed across
the forecast area.

Several smaller and less intense complexes were noted in north
central Oklahoma, and central Kansas. These systems were moving to
the south and southeast, along the edge of an instability ridge, in
a northwesterly upper flow.

During this period, a number of additional system are expected to
develop in this pattern.  The main forecast challenge is to attempt
to focus a potential for any of these future systems to affect the
forecast area.  Overall, expect precipitation chances to increase
during this period, from west to east. Forecasts will reflect timing
uncertainties, yet will reflect the increasing confidence in
overall precipitation potential.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Very progressive upper level pattern will continue over the
continental US during the extended term. Numerous shortwaves will
zip across the area, bringing periods of cloudiness and
precipitation. Toward the end of the extended term, models are
trying to build up a ridge across the western half of the country,
placing Arkansas at the eastern edge of the ridge. If this develops,
I would expect a period of drier and warmer weather.

At the surface, the extended term begins with high pressure over the
Great Lakes region, which will allow a warm front to push northward
across the state on Saturday as the high slides to the east.

Southerly surface flow will remain dominant thru the remainder of
the period, which should keep warm and humid Gulf air over the area.

I am keeping a watch on a few different periods in the extended term
where strong to severe storms may be possible. In particular, it
appears that Monday afternoon thru the evening could result in a
very unstable airmass across the region. With a shortwave likely
approaching during that time frame...I would consider this to be a
likely candidate for severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

VFR conds are expected to prevail thru much of the PD. Mainly high
clouds wl stream acrs the region tngt. Lower and mid level clouds
wl incrs over the FA on Wed, with chcs for convection returning
later in the day. Kept PROB30 groups in for most terminals as
areal coverage rmns uncertain at this point.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...44