282
FXUS64 KLZK 281934
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
234 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Recent observations indicate mid and high clouds covering the
southern half of the forecast area. This cloud cover is in
association with a MCS not moving southward across southeast Texas
and southwest Louisiana.  Near normal temperatures prevailed across
the forecast area.

Several smaller and less intense complexes were noted in north
central Oklahoma, and central Kansas. These systems were moving to
the south and southeast, along the edge of an instability ridge, in
a northwesterly upper flow.

During this period, a number of additional system are expected to
develop in this pattern.  The main forecast challenge is to attempt
to focus a potential for any of these future systems to affect the
forecast area.  Overall, expect precipitation chances to increase
during this period, from west to east. Forecasts will reflect timing
uncertainties, yet will reflect the increasing confidence in
overall precipitation potential.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Very progressive upper level pattern will continue over the
continental US during the extended term. Numerous shortwaves will
zip across the area, bringing periods of cloudiness and
precipitation. Toward the end of the extended term, models are
trying to build up a ridge across the western half of the country,
placing Arkansas at the eastern edge of the ridge. If this develops,
I would expect a period of drier and warmer weather.

At the surface, the extended term begins with high pressure over the
Great Lakes region, which will allow a warm front to push northward
across the state on Saturday as the high slides to the east.

Southerly surface flow will remain dominant thru the remainder of
the period, which should keep warm and humid Gulf air over the area.

I am keeping a watch on a few different periods in the extended term
where strong to severe storms may be possible. In particular, it
appears that Monday afternoon thru the evening could result in a
very unstable airmass across the region. With a shortwave likely
approaching during that time frame...I would consider this to be a
likely candidate for severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Best chances for any precipitation effects on visibility will be
across extreme western sections of the forecast area. Otherwise
VFR conditions, with a light and variable surface flow will
prevail during this valid TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     63  80  61  77 /  10  40  20  20
Camden AR         66  84  65  80 /  20  60  30  40
Harrison AR       59  77  58  76 /  20  50  10  20
Hot Springs AR    66  81  63  79 /  20  60  30  30
Little Rock   AR  67  84  66  79 /  20  50  30  30
Monticello AR     68  87  66  81 /  10  50  30  40
Mount Ida AR      64  80  63  79 /  30  70  30  30
Mountain Home AR  60  78  58  76 /  20  40  10  10
Newport AR        64  81  63  79 /  10  30  20  10
Pine Bluff AR     67  85  65  80 /  10  50  30  30
Russellville AR   64  81  63  78 /  20  60  20  20
Searcy AR         64  83  62  77 /  20  40  30  20
Stuttgart AR      67  83  66  79 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...55