Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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324 FXUS64 KLZK 280524 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1224 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Latest satellite and surface observations indicate generally mostly clear conditions across the forecast area. Observed temperatures were averaging 5-10 degrees above normal for late May. Expect the upper flow over north America to amplify during this period, allowing for a northwest flow pattern to develop over the mid south. Expect several disturbances to travel towards the forecast area on Tuesday and Wednesday through this northwest flow. Several periods of precipitation are forecast in association with these disturbances, mainly to affect southwest and western sections of the forecast area. Widespread heavy rain and severe potential are expected to be limited in the forecast area, with the focus of strong convection expected to occur to the west and south of the state. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 In a very broad sense, large scale upper level ridging will be in control of the weather pattern across the central CONtinental United States (CONUS) from Wednesday night through Saturday. However, the higher amplitude ridge axis sits well off to our north in between two stout upper level low pressure systems during this period. In the base of the ridge axis, low amplitude flow aloft that is more or less westerly during the period will allow weak upper level disturbances to move over the state Wednesday night and again on Friday. Because the primary drivers of cyclogenesis and anticyclogenesis lie well off to the north, the wind field around each of these weak upper level disturbances is expected to remain somewhat dampened which should serve to keep the severe weather threat quite low despite the decent chance for thunderstorms in the forecast throughout this time period. In the absence of a stronger surface cyclone to our west, weak southerly winds will bring some moisture/humidity back across the state from mid to late week, however dew points are "only" expected to climb into the lower to mid 60s, allowing overnight lows to fall to these same temperatures each night. With temperatures approaching the dew point each night, expect that some patchy dense fog will be possible each morning Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. We will begin to warm up starting on Sunday as a much stronger upper level disturbance moves south from British Columbia towards the four corners region of the CONUS Sunday night into Monday morning. This should bring some relatively strong surface cyclogenesis over the central high plains Sunday night, causing low-level southerly winds to pick up bringing deeper Gulf moisture up across Arkansas. This will cause dew points to once again climb above 70 degrees resulting in overnight/morning lows starting off 5 to 10 degrees warmer than the previous several days. The stronger wind field and deeper moisture could also lead to the possibility of more severe weather across Arkansas maybe late on Monday or into early Tuesday, depending on when the upper low moves east towards the state. The trough is progged to approach Arkansas as positively tilted, so don`t expect an outbreak or anything at this time, but definitely something to keep an eye on in the forecast in the days ahead. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Patchy fog may develop across the state before sunrise since skies are clear, winds are calm, and ground level moisture is plentiful. Dew pt depressions at some sites are already 4 or less. Where fog develops conds may become MVFR, otherwise VFR conds will prevail through the remainder of the period. Mentioned VCSH over Nrn terminals Tues afternoon associated with a passing upper level disturbance. Activity should diminish after sunset Tues. Winds will be light and variable through the TAF cycle. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 87 63 80 61 / 10 0 20 10 Camden AR 89 66 79 63 / 10 20 40 30 Harrison AR 82 59 79 58 / 20 10 20 10 Hot Springs AR 89 65 79 62 / 20 20 40 30 Little Rock AR 89 67 81 64 / 10 10 30 20 Monticello AR 90 68 81 64 / 10 10 40 30 Mount Ida AR 87 63 78 61 / 20 30 50 30 Mountain Home AR 84 59 80 59 / 10 0 20 10 Newport AR 87 64 80 62 / 10 0 10 10 Pine Bluff AR 89 67 80 64 / 10 10 30 20 Russellville AR 88 64 81 62 / 20 10 30 20 Searcy AR 88 63 80 61 / 10 10 20 10 Stuttgart AR 88 68 80 64 / 10 10 30 20 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...70