324
FXUS64 KLZK 280524
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1224 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Latest satellite and surface observations indicate generally
mostly clear conditions across the forecast area.  Observed
temperatures were averaging 5-10 degrees above normal for late May.

Expect the upper flow over north America to amplify during this
period, allowing for a northwest flow pattern to develop over the
mid south. Expect several disturbances to travel towards the
forecast area on Tuesday and Wednesday through this northwest flow.
Several periods of precipitation are forecast in association with
these disturbances, mainly to affect southwest and western sections
of the forecast area.  Widespread heavy rain and severe potential
are expected to be limited in the forecast area, with the focus of
strong convection expected to occur to the west and south of the
state.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

In a very broad sense, large scale upper level ridging will be in
control of the weather pattern across the central CONtinental United
States (CONUS) from Wednesday night through Saturday. However, the
higher amplitude ridge axis sits well off to our north in between
two stout upper level low pressure systems during this period. In
the base of the ridge axis, low amplitude flow aloft that is more or
less westerly during the period will allow weak upper level
disturbances to move over the state Wednesday night and again on
Friday. Because the primary drivers of cyclogenesis and
anticyclogenesis lie well off to the north, the wind field around
each of these weak upper level disturbances is expected to remain
somewhat dampened which should serve to keep the severe weather
threat quite low despite the decent chance for thunderstorms in the
forecast throughout this time period.

In the absence of a stronger surface cyclone to our west, weak
southerly winds will bring some moisture/humidity back across the
state from mid to late week, however dew points are "only" expected
to climb into the lower to mid 60s, allowing overnight lows to fall
to these same temperatures each night. With temperatures approaching
the dew point each night, expect that some patchy dense fog will be
possible each morning Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

We will begin to warm up starting on Sunday as a much stronger upper
level disturbance moves south from British Columbia towards the four
corners region of the CONUS Sunday night into Monday morning. This
should bring some relatively strong surface cyclogenesis over the
central high plains Sunday night, causing low-level southerly winds
to pick up bringing deeper Gulf moisture up across Arkansas. This
will cause dew points to once again climb above 70 degrees resulting
in overnight/morning lows starting off 5 to 10 degrees warmer than
the previous several days. The stronger wind field and deeper
moisture could also lead to the possibility of more severe weather
across Arkansas maybe late on Monday or into early Tuesday,
depending on when the upper low moves east towards the state. The
trough is progged to approach Arkansas as positively tilted, so
don`t expect an outbreak or anything at this time, but definitely
something to keep an eye on in the forecast in the days ahead.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Patchy fog may develop across the state before sunrise since
skies are clear, winds are calm, and ground level moisture is
plentiful. Dew pt depressions at some sites are already 4 or less.
Where fog develops conds may become MVFR, otherwise VFR conds
will prevail through the remainder of the period. Mentioned VCSH
over Nrn terminals Tues afternoon associated with a passing upper
level disturbance. Activity should diminish after sunset Tues.
Winds will be light and variable through the TAF cycle.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     87  63  80  61 /  10   0  20  10
Camden AR         89  66  79  63 /  10  20  40  30
Harrison AR       82  59  79  58 /  20  10  20  10
Hot Springs AR    89  65  79  62 /  20  20  40  30
Little Rock   AR  89  67  81  64 /  10  10  30  20
Monticello AR     90  68  81  64 /  10  10  40  30
Mount Ida AR      87  63  78  61 /  20  30  50  30
Mountain Home AR  84  59  80  59 /  10   0  20  10
Newport AR        87  64  80  62 /  10   0  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     89  67  80  64 /  10  10  30  20
Russellville AR   88  64  81  62 /  20  10  30  20
Searcy AR         88  63  80  61 /  10  10  20  10
Stuttgart AR      88  68  80  64 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...70