361
FXUS64 KLZK 302014
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
314 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Fairly quiet across the FA this aftn, but cont to monitor ongoing
convection slowly apchg fm OK and NE TX. A stationary bndry was
situated close to SW AR, where sfc dewpoints were arnd 70. Drier air
was noted further to the NE ovr our FA, with corresponding readings
in the mid/ upper 50s.

Basically, an unsettled weather pattern is in store for the area in
the coming days. Several upper SWT`s are progged to traverse the
area into Sat, resulting in several rounds of convection affecting
the FA thru Sat. Timing and placement of smaller scale boundaries
always tend to lessen fcst confidence is these situations regarding
temps and PoPs.

CAMS cont to show the aforementioned convection working into western
AR this evening, but shows some signs of weakening with loss of
daytime heating. However, additional storms are fcst to impacts OK
and TX later tngt, with some of this activity likely affecting much
of the area heading into Fri. Again, depending on meso-scale
features, there is the potential for some strong/severe storms on
Fri.

Rain chcs wl cont on Sat, with a brief break possible Sat ngt,
but that wl be short-lived to close out the weekend. Heavy
rainfall wl cont to be a concern for localized flash flooding.
However, opted to hold off with any Flood Watches for now, but wl
cont to monitor.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

In general west-northwest flow aloft will be in place over the
central CONtinental United States (CONUS) from Saturday night
through Wednesday. In the absence of a powerful upper level trough
or ridge, shortwave troughs will generally provide the perturbations
that cause the geostrophic flow aloft to alternate between pure
westerly and shifts to northwesterly flow aloft. These shifts are
important because they will have a cascading impact on surface
weather conditions east of the Rockies to the Mississippi River.
When the flow aloft is oriented westerly, as the westerly flow moves
from the high terrain of the Rockies to the lower terrain of the
plains, the atmospheric column expanding in depth will cause a
surface trough to develop over the higher plains east of the
Rockies. This is due to the conservation of potential vorticity
which effectively creates surface troughing due to the atmosphere
moving from a compressed to expanded vertical state simply due to
elevation change alone.

With westerly flow aloft causing cyclogenesis over the high plains,
periods of northwest flow aloft will drive weak/Pacific type cold
frontal boundaries southeast, providing synoptic scale lift east of
the surface cyclones or troughs that develop during conditions of
westerly flow aloft. The western troughs will cause south or
southeasterly low-level flow to set up over Arkansas pumping
moisture rich Gulf of Mexico air north across the state. Because
this period exists in early June, the sun angle is just about as
high as it gets over the CONUS leading to extremely efficient
heating each day. The positive moisture flux combined with the
efficient daytime heating will be consistent drivers of thunderstorm
energy across the state Sunday through Wednesday. Everytime one of
the pacific type cold fronts interacts with this energetic airmass,
it will kick off a line of thunderstorms that will continue
downstream into the axis of hot and humid air. As a result, this
type of pattern is well known to send multiple linear mesoscale
convective systems (MCSs) across the central CONUS this time of
year. Each linear MCS will bring with it a threat for damaging winds
and at least a marginal threat for hail and quick spin up tornadoes.
Localized flooding is also possible, but widespread flooding is not
common because these types of storm systems tend to move and don`t
sit in one place all that long.

This cycle of linear MCS, reset the atmosphere with southerly winds,
just in time to allow another linear MCS roll through will continue
throughout the extended forecast period will continue through Monday
when a stronger upper trough digs southeast over the western Great
Lakes region driving a Pacific type cold front well south of
Arkansas interrupting the moisture reloading cycle of this weekend
through early next week. After Wednesday drier air will move across
the state leading to a period of drier weather beginning Thursday
and likely continuing into next weekend.

Cavanaugh

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR conds wl prevail this aftn acrs the FA. CU field wl cont to
dvlp from aftn heating, esp acrs the SW part of the area where
higher sfc dewpoints reside. CAMS cont to show the remnants of
ongoing storms to the west of AR, could affect some of the central
terminals by this evening. Opted to go with VCTS at these sites
for now and see how things play out. MVFR conds wl return to most
areas later tngt and Fri as additional convection impacts the FA,
with some IFR conds possible Fri mrng.

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     64  76  66  82 /  30  70  70  60
Camden AR         68  81  66  83 /  50  90  70  60
Harrison AR       62  73  63  80 /  40  80  70  30
Hot Springs AR    66  78  66  84 /  50  90  70  50
Little Rock   AR  69  80  68  85 /  60  80  70  60
Monticello AR     69  83  68  84 /  30  70  70  80
Mount Ida AR      65  78  65  85 /  60  90  70  50
Mountain Home AR  62  73  64  80 /  30  80  70  40
Newport AR        66  78  68  83 /  20  60  70  70
Pine Bluff AR     68  81  67  84 /  40  80  70  70
Russellville AR   67  78  66  84 /  50  90  70  40
Searcy AR         65  76  66  83 /  50  70  70  60
Stuttgart AR      69  80  68  83 /  50  70  70  70

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...44