Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
661 FXUS64 KMAF 060854 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 354 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 321 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Much of the same weather experienced yesterday can be expected again later this afternoon. After another mild and muggy morning, it heats up quickly once again. Temperatures should be within a few degrees of yesterday with widespread upper 90s and 100s across the region. It will be a touch warmer across southeast New Mexico and the western higher elevations as the low-level thermal ridge is pushed slightly further east. This leads to another round of Heat Advisories for Eddy County and once again across heat-prone Brewster County. Outside of the continued heat, another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected across the higher elevations with the aid of another weak disturbance, daytime heating, and orographic ascent. This activity should remain widely scattered and slowly weakens and dissipates this evening with the loss of heating. The only exception is across the northern Permian Basin. A weakening MCS that is expected to develop across western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle this afternoon may sag south into the northern Permian basin before dissipating this evening. Another mild night is expected tonight with most locations remaining in the 70s. Tomorrow afternoon is almost a carbon copy of this afternoon with temperatures within a few degrees of the previous days. Once again, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms should be expected across the higher elevations during the afternoon. -Chehak && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 321 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Saturday will be a repeat of Thursday and Friday with triple digit heat and a chance for showers and thunderstorms west of the Pecos River. From there on out the uncertainty greatly increases in the forecast. At issue is a cold front arriving on Sunday that models are in considerable disagreement with its timing. The NAM is fastest with fropa in the I-20 corridor around 12Z Sunday morning. However it indicates that this initial wind shift may be convectively enhanced and not the real cold air which doesn`t arrive until at least 18Z. Other models are slower and NBM ensemble guidance agrees with highs mostly in the mid to upper 90s to low 100s. MOS guidance from GFS/ECMWF has been bouncing around adding to the uncertainty. Will go ahead and stay with the NBM given the low confidence but can`t help but think that the front will be faster and Sunday may wind up cooler than currently forecast. In addition, if the front is faster then PoPs may be higher on Sunday and ending earlier on Monday. Low level flow behind the front shifts from the northeast to the south and southeast beginning on Tuesday. This is a welcome change from recent years when we have had a much faster shift of south- southwesterly winds which would quickly advect in hotter and drier air from Mexico. Southeasterly winds bring in modified air from the Gulf of Mexico putting a lid on temps. We see this in the extended as highs creep up during the week but hold only slightly above climatological norms. There may also be another rogue weak cold front reaching our CWA next week but models are very uncertain about that. Hennig && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 VFR and east to southeast winds for all terminals through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 103 75 102 75 / 0 10 0 0 Carlsbad 104 74 104 73 / 10 10 10 20 Dryden 101 77 101 74 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 103 75 102 75 / 10 0 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 96 72 95 71 / 20 10 20 30 Hobbs 102 72 100 71 / 0 10 0 0 Marfa 96 61 96 61 / 40 20 20 20 Midland Intl Airport 101 75 100 74 / 0 10 0 0 Odessa 102 76 100 76 / 0 10 0 0 Wink 106 76 105 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-Lower Brewster County. NM...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for Eddy County Plains. && $$ SHORT TERM...91 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...91