955
FXUS64 KMAF 050851
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
351 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A cold front has made its way through much of the Permian Basin
early this morning and is expected to clear the region by this
afternoon. Now, when I say "cold" front, what I really mean is a
northeasterly wind shift because there is a lack of a colder
airmass behind this feature. Temperatures this afternoon won`t be
quite as hot as yesterday, a few degrees cooler for most, but it
will still be hot. The hottest temperatures remain primarily south
of I-10 closest to the Rio Grande where another round of Heat
Advisories are needed. The only benefit to this "cold" front is
increased moisture and weak upslope flow across the higher
elevations. This change correlates well with a weak disturbance
rounding the subtropical high pressure currently centered near the
Four Corners region. With this in mind, at least isolated showers
and thunderstorms are expected from the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains to the Stockton Plateau. The lack of shear keeps
everything well behaved but the hot temperatures result in high
bases and limited accumulation, though these areas need all they
can get in terms of rainfall.

Tonight sees any showers or thunderstorms quickly subside with
the loss of solar insolation. Winds gradually become more easterly
to southeasterly through the overnight hours. This helps to
increase moisture return back into the region but also hampers
radiational cooling to a small degree. Most locations struggle to
cool into the 70s with the cooler 60s confined to the higher
elevations and northern extremities of the area.

On Thursday a similar weather set up continues for the area. With
more southeasterly flow, temperatures climb a few degrees upwards
and the widespread 100s return. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms is expected for the western higher elevations,
though chances are greater given better moisture aided by the
southeasterly return flow. Widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms should develop across much of the same areas as the
day prior. Little changes from this general pattern for now as you
will see in the long term period.

-Chehak

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

An upper level high will build over the western United States
centered near the Four Corners region into the weekend. The high
will not be particularly strong with 500mb heights around 592dam.
The weak high allows an upper low off the northwestern Mexico
coast to move east and eject disturbances into the southern
Rockies affecting our westernmost counties with isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. Hopefully
some of our western counties can pick up some badly needed
rainfall over the next few days. Temperatures remain pretty steady
through Saturday with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s for most
locations.

A deepening of a low over the Great Lakes, combined with the
western U.S. high weakening will allow for a cold front to enter
the CWA on Sunday. This is where uncertainty enters the forecast
as deterministic models continue to be more aggressive than the
ensemble NBM. QPF forecasts of the big long range models suggest a
pretty good chance for rain with the front on Sunday for much of
the Permian Basin. Accordingly temperatures should drop noticeably
with increased clouds and precipitation, not to mention weak cold
air advection behind the front. Deterministic models carry the
cooling into Monday with highs possibly as cool as the 80s, a nice
reprieve from the heat. The NBM has begun to catch on to this for
Monday though it`s still quite warm on Sunday. Suspect the front
will be faster than the NBM currently shows and Sunday temps drop
in the upcoming model runs but will stay with NBM for now due to
the uncertainty. Some warming occurs Tuesday though temps will
still be near normal. This is kind of an exciting beginning to the
summer. The past several years have been very dry due to sustained
westerly flow in the summer keeping very hot and dry air in place
over eastern New Mexico and West Texas. This year the westerly
flow seems much more transitory giving us rain chances after brief
rain spells. All we can ask for is a chance.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR conditions continue. A cold front is bringing a northerly wind
shift to area terminals. This front is expected to clear most
terminals within the next few hours and the remainder later this
morning. Winds will gradually become more easterly later this
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               98  71 102  73 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                101  71 103  74 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                  105  75 101  76 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton           102  73 102  75 /  10  10  20   0
Guadalupe Pass           93  71  95  72 /  10  10  20  10
Hobbs                    97  69 101  71 /  10  10   0  10
Marfa                    97  62  97  62 /  20  10  40  10
Midland Intl Airport     99  72 101  74 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                   99  73 101  75 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                    103  73 105  76 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-Lower Brewster
     County-Terrell.

NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...91