452
FXUS64 KMAF 100530
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1230 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

WV imagery shows the Baja trough now over Arizona, advecting a mess
of clouds across the border, which will play hob w/afternoon
temperatures.  To the north, an approaching cold front is backing
winds in the Permian Basin, and this isn`t helping w/temperatures
either.  Latest observations/hi-res data suggests highs may be a
little cooler in the north than yesterday due to the front, but a
little warmer in the south, unless clouds increase further there.

CAMs are in good agreement in backing winds over the Permian Basin
this afternoon, sharpening up a boundary along and just north of the
Pecos, and unzipping a line of convection along this feature by 20Z
or so.  Environmental shear looks tepid, as would be expected under
ridging, so not much organized activity is anticipated.  However,
dry subcloud layers and steep mid-level lapse rates will maintain a
hail/wind threat over the northeast.

Tonight, models still develop convection north of the CWA, adding a
push to the cold front overnight as the Baja trough rides through
the ridge.  This will advect abundant moisture into the area, w/the
60F isodrosotherm banked up against the higher terrain and even
beyond by 12Z Monday.  Forecast soundings for KMAF increase pwats to
1.72" this evening, considerably higher than the climatological max
of 1.57" and median of 0.97".  Better rain chances will shift from
Southeast New Mexico to the Western Low Rolling Plains overnight as
the trough moves east, but with any luck, the drought stricken areas
over the higher terrain out west will get a little relief. What
little fuels are out there remain dry, so lightning starts remain a
concern.  With the cooler air moving in behind the boundary, lows
tonight should bottom out only ~ 5 F above normal.

Monday, the upper ridge shifts west, and the Baja trough is still
forecast to straddle New Mexico/Texas by 00Z Tuesday.  Stratus
should be backed up against the higher terrain during the morning,
and slow to clear out during the day.  For those who like colder
weather, this will be your day, as near- to below-normal highs are
anticipated.  Despite this, rain chances will continue as surface
winds veer to easterly, promoting upslope flow under the still-
present Baja trough.  CAMs bring in 40-50 kt deep layer shear during
the afternoon, and mid-level lapse rates remain steep, especially
over the higher terrain.  Thus, the severe threat will continue.

This activity will taper off to the northeast Monday night as the
upper trough begins exiting to the east.  Clearing skies will
promote radiational cooling, resulting in overnight minimums as cool
or a degree below tonight`s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

After a somewhat active day of weather today and tomorrow, the
pattern generally quiets down for the remainder of the week as upper
ridging is set to return. Before that, one last day of some rain
chances is anticipated for Tuesday as an upper trough slides from
the Texas Panhandle through the Red River Valley. A few afternoon
storms are expected primarily in the northern/eastern Permian Basin
along existing outflow boundaries from Monday`s storms as well as
the typical spot over the Davis Mountains. While Monday featured a
welcome but brief break from the heat, temperatures are allowed to
quickly return into the 90s for most with triple digits confined to
the river valleys.

Upper ridging returns Wednesday and should stick around through the
weekend. This warms most of the area well into the upper 90s and
triple digits by Thursday, continuing through early next week. While
a few storms are possible across the Davis Mountains once again on
Wednesday afternoon, subsidence supplied by the building ridge
largely limits storm chances beyond Wednesday.

-Munyan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

At issuance, winds are variable and gusty due to outflow
boundaries and waning convection east of the terminals. Over the
next few hours, gusts will largely diminish as winds will settle
out of the N/NE, with a round of MVFR cigs progged to develop
into the area around 12Z-16Z. Have included mention of lower cigs
at MAF/HOB where confidence is highest, and will monitor and amend
as needed elsewhere. VFR conditions will return areawide
thereafter, though with scattered ceilings around 5-8kft. Around
21-22Z, thunderstorms are expected to develop over SE NM and
gradually move E/SE through the evening, thus have included VCTS
at CNM, HOB, INK, and MAF where confidence in potential impacts is
higher. Storms that develop would be capable of erratic gusty
winds, lightning, and MVFR/IFR conditions in heavy rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               88  67  94  69 /  40  30  20  20
Carlsbad                 90  67 100  69 /  40  20  10   0
Dryden                   93  71  99  74 /  20  20  10   0
Fort Stockton            93  70 100  72 /  30  20  20   0
Guadalupe Pass           86  65  93  69 /  40  20  10   0
Hobbs                    86  63  94  65 /  30  30  10  10
Marfa                    90  58  96  61 /  50  20  30   0
Midland Intl Airport     88  68  94  70 /  30  20  10  10
Odessa                   89  68  95  71 /  30  20  10  10
Wink                     93  71 101  72 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...84