Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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452 FXUS64 KMAF 100530 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1230 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 WV imagery shows the Baja trough now over Arizona, advecting a mess of clouds across the border, which will play hob w/afternoon temperatures. To the north, an approaching cold front is backing winds in the Permian Basin, and this isn`t helping w/temperatures either. Latest observations/hi-res data suggests highs may be a little cooler in the north than yesterday due to the front, but a little warmer in the south, unless clouds increase further there. CAMs are in good agreement in backing winds over the Permian Basin this afternoon, sharpening up a boundary along and just north of the Pecos, and unzipping a line of convection along this feature by 20Z or so. Environmental shear looks tepid, as would be expected under ridging, so not much organized activity is anticipated. However, dry subcloud layers and steep mid-level lapse rates will maintain a hail/wind threat over the northeast. Tonight, models still develop convection north of the CWA, adding a push to the cold front overnight as the Baja trough rides through the ridge. This will advect abundant moisture into the area, w/the 60F isodrosotherm banked up against the higher terrain and even beyond by 12Z Monday. Forecast soundings for KMAF increase pwats to 1.72" this evening, considerably higher than the climatological max of 1.57" and median of 0.97". Better rain chances will shift from Southeast New Mexico to the Western Low Rolling Plains overnight as the trough moves east, but with any luck, the drought stricken areas over the higher terrain out west will get a little relief. What little fuels are out there remain dry, so lightning starts remain a concern. With the cooler air moving in behind the boundary, lows tonight should bottom out only ~ 5 F above normal. Monday, the upper ridge shifts west, and the Baja trough is still forecast to straddle New Mexico/Texas by 00Z Tuesday. Stratus should be backed up against the higher terrain during the morning, and slow to clear out during the day. For those who like colder weather, this will be your day, as near- to below-normal highs are anticipated. Despite this, rain chances will continue as surface winds veer to easterly, promoting upslope flow under the still- present Baja trough. CAMs bring in 40-50 kt deep layer shear during the afternoon, and mid-level lapse rates remain steep, especially over the higher terrain. Thus, the severe threat will continue. This activity will taper off to the northeast Monday night as the upper trough begins exiting to the east. Clearing skies will promote radiational cooling, resulting in overnight minimums as cool or a degree below tonight`s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 After a somewhat active day of weather today and tomorrow, the pattern generally quiets down for the remainder of the week as upper ridging is set to return. Before that, one last day of some rain chances is anticipated for Tuesday as an upper trough slides from the Texas Panhandle through the Red River Valley. A few afternoon storms are expected primarily in the northern/eastern Permian Basin along existing outflow boundaries from Monday`s storms as well as the typical spot over the Davis Mountains. While Monday featured a welcome but brief break from the heat, temperatures are allowed to quickly return into the 90s for most with triple digits confined to the river valleys. Upper ridging returns Wednesday and should stick around through the weekend. This warms most of the area well into the upper 90s and triple digits by Thursday, continuing through early next week. While a few storms are possible across the Davis Mountains once again on Wednesday afternoon, subsidence supplied by the building ridge largely limits storm chances beyond Wednesday. -Munyan && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 At issuance, winds are variable and gusty due to outflow boundaries and waning convection east of the terminals. Over the next few hours, gusts will largely diminish as winds will settle out of the N/NE, with a round of MVFR cigs progged to develop into the area around 12Z-16Z. Have included mention of lower cigs at MAF/HOB where confidence is highest, and will monitor and amend as needed elsewhere. VFR conditions will return areawide thereafter, though with scattered ceilings around 5-8kft. Around 21-22Z, thunderstorms are expected to develop over SE NM and gradually move E/SE through the evening, thus have included VCTS at CNM, HOB, INK, and MAF where confidence in potential impacts is higher. Storms that develop would be capable of erratic gusty winds, lightning, and MVFR/IFR conditions in heavy rain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 88 67 94 69 / 40 30 20 20 Carlsbad 90 67 100 69 / 40 20 10 0 Dryden 93 71 99 74 / 20 20 10 0 Fort Stockton 93 70 100 72 / 30 20 20 0 Guadalupe Pass 86 65 93 69 / 40 20 10 0 Hobbs 86 63 94 65 / 30 30 10 10 Marfa 90 58 96 61 / 50 20 30 0 Midland Intl Airport 88 68 94 70 / 30 20 10 10 Odessa 89 68 95 71 / 30 20 10 10 Wink 93 71 101 72 / 20 20 10 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...84