Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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743 FXUS64 KMAF 082015 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 315 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 WV imagery shows the upper ridge has shifted clear across Texas to the Louisiana coast this afternoon, allowing the Baja trough to move inland to the Gulf of California. However, this is having nor effect on afternoon highs, which should come in ~ 10F above normal. Diurnally-driven orographic convection is trying to develop invof the Davis Mountains, w/hi-res models expanding this over most of the higher terrain by late afternoon, after which it will diminish after sundown. With any luck, the drought-stricken higher terrain will get some much-needed rainfall. Of course, the downside to this will be fire starts from lightning, as what little fuels we have are dry. Tonight, despite a 35+ kt LLJ cranking up, convection will diminish by 06Z. This, and plenty of debris cloud will retard radiational cooling, resulting in yet another unseasonably warm night of lows 10- 12F above normal. Sunday, the Baja trough opens and moves to northern Chihuahua by 00Z Monday. To the northeast, a cold front will approach the CWA. CAMs develop convection during the afternoon along the front, and the incoming Baja trough will only exacerbate this. Steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place for all but the northeast, and deep- layer shear over the northeastern zones will render a severe threat. The northern zones will also see a little cooling invof the front, but for the rest of us, highs will be very similar to today`s, if not a degree or so warmer with a little pre-frontal compressional warming thrown into the mix. Sunday night, the Baja trough moves through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Models develop a MCS just north of the CWA, driving the front south to the border by 12Z Monday. This will increase chances of rain across the area, especially north. 60+F surface dewpoints are expected as far west as the Guadalupes, increasing pwats to over 3 std devs above normal. NAM forecast soundings increase pwat at KMAF to 1.87" by 06Z Monday, which is well over the max of 1.53" and mean of 1.01". This will likely translate to locally heavy rainfall northeast. This rain, and the front, should bring a little relief to the unseasonably warm nights of late, knocking at least 5F off of tonight`s temperatures. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Monday has gradually trended a bit more interesting as we draw closer in time to the day. An upper trough will be positioned across northeastern New Mexico while a few notable boundaries will be situated in our area. The first is a remnant outflow boundary caused by Sunday`s convection with the other being the cold front set to move through Sunday evening/overnight. It is still uncertain whether these two boundaries will merger together or where they will be positioned come Monday afternoon but this will largely dictates how Monday shakes out. Overall, there will be modest instability with the largest axis of CAPE (1500-2500 J/kg) expected to set up just south of the cold front where some moisture pooling occurs. This paired with boundary interactions, diurnal heating, and some synoptic aid from the nearby trough, should be enough to get a few storms going. Any storms that form will have 30+ kts of bulk shear to work on with some low-level directional shear as well (especially near the boundaries). With this, nearly all modes of severe weather will be possible, so this is surely something to keep an eye on over the next day or so. Between the cold front, plus added cloud cover/precipitation, Monday looks to be the "coolest" day of the long term with highs largely in the upper 80s for the Permian Basin and in the 90s/100s elsewhere. Beyond Monday, the pattern re-settles back into a quieter setup with northwesterly flow on Tuesday giving way to a building ridge set to control our weather for the second half of the week. The main highlight here is the rapid return of the heat for Tuesday, followed by a steady warming trend that could have widespread 100-110+ degree high temperatures for Thursday-Saturday with Thursday likely set to be the hottest day of the week. While good low level moisture remains in place through the week, the subsidence from the upper ridging limits low storm chances to the elevated heat sources of the Davis Mountains and western higher terrain each afternoon. -Munyan && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field this afternoon in return flow, w/bases 6-8 kft AGL. Convection will be possible, but chances too low for a mention. Tonight, a 35+ kt LLJ will keep winds elevated in the east. An approaching front will begin backing winds in the north, while driving a dryline east in the south, which will make for some variable winds, especially KFST/KPEQ. Another cu field is anticipated near the end of the forecast period, w/bases 5-11 kft AGL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 76 101 69 88 / 0 20 50 40 Carlsbad 72 101 68 92 / 20 20 40 30 Dryden 75 103 74 95 / 10 10 20 30 Fort Stockton 76 105 70 95 / 20 10 20 40 Guadalupe Pass 71 92 64 86 / 30 20 30 30 Hobbs 70 99 64 88 / 20 30 60 40 Marfa 62 97 59 93 / 30 10 20 40 Midland Intl Airport 75 101 69 88 / 0 10 40 40 Odessa 76 101 69 89 / 0 10 40 40 Wink 75 106 71 94 / 10 10 30 30 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Davis Mountains-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. NM...Heat Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...44