989
FXUS64 KMAF 111928
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
228 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

After a busy day yesterday, things are a bit quieter this
afternoon. Visible satellite shows a low cu deck moving into the
Permian Basin and parts of Lea County, but should scatter out in
the next few hours. There remains an abundance of low-level
moisture across the eastern Permian Basin where PW values exceed
an inch, and residual boundaries from last nights storms will
initiate some additional storms this afternoon. Better shear and
instability is displaced to the east and southeast today, and thus
the severe weather threat looks marginal at best for us this
afternoon. Still, any storms developing off the far eastern
Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos will be able to quickly become
severe, with hail, lightning, and strong winds all a threat. As
storms move out tonight, surface winds shift more southeasterly in
response to lee troughing to the north, and strong upper level
ridging builds in across the west. This will result in a cloudy
morning on Wednesday before temperatures warm to the 90s/low 100s
Wednesday afternoon. Despite ridging typically meaning dry
weather, a few storms will be possible in the afternoon hours
across the higher terrain, namely, the Davis and Sacramento
Mountains. No severe weather expected Wednesday at this point.

-Zuber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

The long term forecast calls for seasonably hot and dry
conditions across the entire area. Later this week an upper high
to our west breaks down due to an upper level low off the
California coast moving inland. Current models show the high being
stronger than yesterday`s runs and pushing the low farther north
before weakening. A more northerly track of the low decreases rain
chances for our western counties and it now appears Friday may be
the only chance for rain from southeastern New Mexico to the Davis
Mountains.

Temperatures bounce around a little over the weekend and into
early next week though the general trend will be for warmer
temperatures aloft to be offset with modified gulf air at the
surface from the southeast. Run to run consistency on all the
medium range models isn`t the best so the NBM ensemble guidance is
the best forecast bet for now which is highs in the upper 90s in
the Permian Basin and mountains, with temperatures exceeding 100
degrees in the lower elevations of the Big Bend and the Pecos
River valley.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Mainly VFR, but SCT035 starting to impact KMAF and KHOB. Should
dissipate in the coming hours. Winds generally N/NE, with all
terminals switching E/SE by this evening. TS in the region this
afternoon, but don`t look to directly impact any terminals. Low
CIGs possible at KMAF early Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               68  93  71  99 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 70  99  73 104 /   0  10   0   0
Dryden                   73  97  74 100 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            71  98  73 102 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           67  93  71  97 /  10  10   0  10
Hobbs                    64  94  68 100 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    60  96  62  98 /  10  20   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     68  94  72  99 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   69  94  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     71  99  75 104 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...88