108
FXUS64 KMAF 120503
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1203 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

After a busy day yesterday, things are a bit quieter this
afternoon. Visible satellite shows a low cu deck moving into the
Permian Basin and parts of Lea County, but should scatter out in
the next few hours. There remains an abundance of low-level
moisture across the eastern Permian Basin where PW values exceed
an inch, and residual boundaries from last nights storms will
initiate some additional storms this afternoon. Better shear and
instability is displaced to the east and southeast today, and thus
the severe weather threat looks marginal at best for us this
afternoon. Still, any storms developing off the far eastern
Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos will be able to quickly become
severe, with hail, lightning, and strong winds all a threat. As
storms move out tonight, surface winds shift more southeasterly in
response to lee troughing to the north, and strong upper level
ridging builds in across the west. This will result in a cloudy
morning on Wednesday before temperatures warm to the 90s/low 100s
Wednesday afternoon. Despite ridging typically meaning dry
weather, a few storms will be possible in the afternoon hours
across the higher terrain, namely, the Davis and Sacramento
Mountains. No severe weather expected Wednesday at this point.

-Zuber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

The long term forecast calls for seasonably hot and dry
conditions across the entire area. Later this week an upper high
to our west breaks down due to an upper level low off the
California coast moving inland. Current models show the high being
stronger than yesterday`s runs and pushing the low farther north
before weakening. A more northerly track of the low decreases rain
chances for our western counties and it now appears Friday may be
the only chance for rain from southeastern New Mexico to the Davis
Mountains.

Temperatures bounce around a little over the weekend and into
early next week though the general trend will be for warmer
temperatures aloft to be offset with modified gulf air at the
surface from the southeast. Run to run consistency on all the
medium range models isn`t the best so the NBM ensemble guidance is
the best forecast bet for now which is highs in the upper 90s in
the Permian Basin and mountains, with temperatures exceeding 100
degrees in the lower elevations of the Big Bend and the Pecos
River valley.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

VFR VIS and CIGs prevail at all terminals throughout TAF period.
Light easterly winds at all terminals decrease in speed until 17Z
Wednesday. Winds back to northeasterly at FST at 17Z. Winds at all
terminals shift to southeasterly by 03Z Thursday, with gustiest
winds for terminals across SE NM plains into western Permian Basin
and over Stockton Plateau.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               93  71  99  73 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 99  73 104  75 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                   97  74 100  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            98  73 102  73 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           93  71  97  73 /  10   0  10  10
Hobbs                    94  68 100  71 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    96  62  98  62 /  20   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     94  72  99  74 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   94  73  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     99  75 104  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...94