953
FXUS64 KMAF 110441
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1141 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Visible satellite shows low clouds hanging around much of the
Permian Basin while a cold front is hung up just north of the
Trans Pecos, limiting warming this afternoon with highs only
reaching the 80s for those north of I-10. Widespread storms Sunday
evening left abundant boundaries lingering across the region, and
these may play a part in storm initiation this afternoon. The
main difference between yesterday and today will be a shortwave
trough over New Mexico, slowly propagating eastward this afternoon
and model soundings show ample shear across the northern CWA,
pointing to storms becoming more organized and potentially severe.
Newest model runs keep the shortwave over New Mexico later, which
will offset timing for storms today, pushing initiation into
mid/late afternoon. Current CAMS develop storms off the Caprock,
which will move into the Permian Basin this evening and possibly
become severe as they approach the I-20 corridor around sunset.
While this is supported meteorologically, the aforementioned
lingering boundaries may throw a wrench in the forecast with
additional storms popping up unexpectedly. The main threat for
storms today will be large hail and strong winds.

As things quiet down tonight, ample moisture hanging around may
once again support low clouds developing in the Midland/Odessa
metro and areas further east. These clouds should begin to clear
out once the sun rises, and as the aforementioned shortwave moves
up into the Red River Valley, warmer air will start pushing in
across the southwest with strong upper level ridging over New
Mexico. With this, highs may reach the upper 90s/low 100s Tuesday
afternoon for those west of the Trans Pecos, and temps will be
pushing 110+ along the Rio Grande. Slightly cooler temps will
persist across the eastern Permian Basin where cloud cover will
continue as the shortwave slowly moves northeastward, and highs
may not break above the 80s. This system may once again develop a
few storms in the afternoon, but chances look much better for
areas further east of here. Still, have maintained at least chance
POPs for the eastern Permian Basin through Tuesday evening.
Similar to today, sounding instability & shear values support
severe weather in anything that develops.

-Zuber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

An upper level high will steadily build over New Mexico this week.
Increasing subsidence associated with the high will cause
temperatures to creep upwards through Friday though remaining
fairly close to climatological norms. The factor keeping temps
from getting too high is southeast winds from off the Gulf of
Mexico advecting in a more temperate airmass at the surface and
partially offsetting subsident warming. In the past several years
we have seen southeast winds at the surface result in very hot
temperatures but they were recirculating air from East Texas,
through the Hill Country and into West Texas. This week the fetch
will be much longer from the southeast and better able to tap into
the modified Gulf air. The upper high also ends rain chances
through Thursday.

An upper low off southern California moves inland Friday and
erodes the high over the weekend. This will increase rain chances
west of the Pecos River Friday and Saturday and again give those
locations that have missed out on much rainfall another chance for
some relief. Westerly flow then develops in the mid and upper
levels as the low moves into the Central Plains advecting in
warmer air aloft from the west. Warm air aloft stabilizes the
atmosphere so any rain chances end early next week. There is some
disagreement as to temperatures over the weekend and early next
week. There isn`t much of a discrepancy, but current MOS guidance
may be giving the warmer air aloft too much of an effect on
surface temperatures since surface flow will remain southeasterly
from the Gulf. As long as the Gulf stays open that should provide
at least a small moderating effect, even if only a couple of
degrees. Either way, it is June and it will be hot.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Outside of showers, VFR VIS and CIGs prevail at all terminals
through TAF period. Winds shift from southeasterly/southerly to
northwesterly at all terminals aside from MAF by 17Z-20Z, where
winds at MAF become easterly by that time frame. Winds become
easterly at all terminals aside from MAF by 02Z Wednesday. Wind
speeds remain light with any gusts below 20kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               87  67  89  67 /  30  60  40  20
Carlsbad                 89  66  97  70 /  40  20  10   0
Dryden                   94  71  98  73 /  30  20  20   0
Fort Stockton            93  69  99  71 /  20  30  20   0
Guadalupe Pass           85  65  91  67 /  30  20  10   0
Hobbs                    86  62  92  64 /  50  40  10   0
Marfa                    90  58  95  61 /  40  20  20   0
Midland Intl Airport     88  66  91  68 /  30  50  20  10
Odessa                   88  67  92  69 /  30  50  10  10
Wink                     92  69  98  72 /  20  30  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...94