679
FXUS64 KMAF 061749
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1249 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Much of the same weather experienced yesterday can be expected
again later this afternoon. After another mild and muggy morning,
it heats up quickly once again. Temperatures should be within a
few degrees of yesterday with widespread upper 90s and 100s across
the region. It will be a touch warmer across southeast New Mexico
and the western higher elevations as the low-level thermal ridge
is pushed slightly further east. This leads to another round of
Heat Advisories for Eddy County and once again across heat-prone
Brewster County. Outside of the continued heat, another round of
showers and thunderstorms is expected across the higher elevations
with the aid of another weak disturbance, daytime heating, and
orographic ascent. This activity should remain widely scattered
and slowly weakens and dissipates this evening with the loss of
heating. The only exception is across the northern Permian Basin.
A weakening MCS that is expected to develop across western
Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle this afternoon may sag south into
the northern Permian basin before dissipating this evening.
Another mild night is expected tonight with most locations
remaining in the 70s. Tomorrow afternoon is almost a carbon copy
of this afternoon with temperatures within a few degrees of the
previous days. Once again, widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms should be expected across the higher elevations
during the afternoon.

-Chehak

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Saturday will be a repeat of Thursday and Friday with triple digit
heat and a chance for showers and thunderstorms west of the Pecos
River. From there on out the uncertainty greatly increases in the
forecast. At issue is a cold front arriving on Sunday that models
are in considerable disagreement with its timing. The NAM is
fastest with fropa in the I-20 corridor around 12Z Sunday morning.
However it indicates that this initial wind shift may be
convectively enhanced and not the real cold air which doesn`t
arrive until at least 18Z. Other models are slower and NBM
ensemble guidance agrees with highs mostly in the mid to upper 90s
to low 100s. MOS guidance from GFS/ECMWF has been bouncing around
adding to the uncertainty. Will go ahead and stay with the NBM
given the low confidence but can`t help but think that the front
will be faster and Sunday may wind up cooler than currently
forecast. In addition, if the front is faster then PoPs may be
higher on Sunday and ending earlier on Monday.

Low level flow behind the front shifts from the northeast to the
south and southeast beginning on Tuesday. This is a welcome change
from recent years when we have had a much faster shift of south-
southwesterly winds which would quickly advect in hotter and drier
air from Mexico. Southeasterly winds bring in modified air from
the Gulf of Mexico putting a lid on temps. We see this in the
extended as highs creep up during the week but hold only slightly
above climatological norms. There may also be another rogue weak
cold front reaching our CWA next week but models are very
uncertain about that.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR prevails with steady southeasterly winds. Winds gradually veer
to southerly by the end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               75 102  75 103 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 74 104  73 103 /  10  10  20  10
Dryden                   77 101  74 101 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            75 102  75 103 /   0  10   0  20
Guadalupe Pass           72  95  71  94 /  10  20  30  20
Hobbs                    72 100  71 102 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                    61  96  61  95 /  20  20  20  40
Midland Intl Airport     75 100  74 101 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                   76 100  76 102 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                     76 105  76 105 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Central Brewster
     County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Loving-Lower
     Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves County Plains-
     Ward-Winkler.

NM...Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for Eddy County Plains.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...16