Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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679 FXUS64 KMAF 061749 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1249 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 321 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Much of the same weather experienced yesterday can be expected again later this afternoon. After another mild and muggy morning, it heats up quickly once again. Temperatures should be within a few degrees of yesterday with widespread upper 90s and 100s across the region. It will be a touch warmer across southeast New Mexico and the western higher elevations as the low-level thermal ridge is pushed slightly further east. This leads to another round of Heat Advisories for Eddy County and once again across heat-prone Brewster County. Outside of the continued heat, another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected across the higher elevations with the aid of another weak disturbance, daytime heating, and orographic ascent. This activity should remain widely scattered and slowly weakens and dissipates this evening with the loss of heating. The only exception is across the northern Permian Basin. A weakening MCS that is expected to develop across western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle this afternoon may sag south into the northern Permian basin before dissipating this evening. Another mild night is expected tonight with most locations remaining in the 70s. Tomorrow afternoon is almost a carbon copy of this afternoon with temperatures within a few degrees of the previous days. Once again, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms should be expected across the higher elevations during the afternoon. -Chehak && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 321 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Saturday will be a repeat of Thursday and Friday with triple digit heat and a chance for showers and thunderstorms west of the Pecos River. From there on out the uncertainty greatly increases in the forecast. At issue is a cold front arriving on Sunday that models are in considerable disagreement with its timing. The NAM is fastest with fropa in the I-20 corridor around 12Z Sunday morning. However it indicates that this initial wind shift may be convectively enhanced and not the real cold air which doesn`t arrive until at least 18Z. Other models are slower and NBM ensemble guidance agrees with highs mostly in the mid to upper 90s to low 100s. MOS guidance from GFS/ECMWF has been bouncing around adding to the uncertainty. Will go ahead and stay with the NBM given the low confidence but can`t help but think that the front will be faster and Sunday may wind up cooler than currently forecast. In addition, if the front is faster then PoPs may be higher on Sunday and ending earlier on Monday. Low level flow behind the front shifts from the northeast to the south and southeast beginning on Tuesday. This is a welcome change from recent years when we have had a much faster shift of south- southwesterly winds which would quickly advect in hotter and drier air from Mexico. Southeasterly winds bring in modified air from the Gulf of Mexico putting a lid on temps. We see this in the extended as highs creep up during the week but hold only slightly above climatological norms. There may also be another rogue weak cold front reaching our CWA next week but models are very uncertain about that. Hennig && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 VFR prevails with steady southeasterly winds. Winds gradually veer to southerly by the end of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 75 102 75 103 / 10 0 0 0 Carlsbad 74 104 73 103 / 10 10 20 10 Dryden 77 101 74 101 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Stockton 75 102 75 103 / 0 10 0 20 Guadalupe Pass 72 95 71 94 / 10 20 30 20 Hobbs 72 100 71 102 / 10 0 0 0 Marfa 61 96 61 95 / 20 20 20 40 Midland Intl Airport 75 100 74 101 / 10 0 0 0 Odessa 76 100 76 102 / 10 0 0 0 Wink 76 105 76 105 / 0 0 0 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves County Plains- Ward-Winkler. NM...Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for Eddy County Plains. && $$ SHORT TERM...91 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...16