Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 222040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222039
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-222245-
Mesoscale Discussion 0898
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024
Areas affected...Portions of northern Mid-Atlantic
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 288...
Valid 222039Z - 222245Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 288
continues.
SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail will remain
possible into the early evening.
DISCUSSION...The most organized convection has been within central
New York into north-central Pennsylvania, more closely associated
with the MCV. Occasional wind damage has been reported with some of
this activity. Farther south into the Blue Ridge, storms developed
with a moist/unstable airmass, but have not appeared overly
organized given around 25 kts of effective shear (observed on 18Z
IAD sounding and supported by current mesoanalysis). Should
clustering occur east of the Blue Ridge, some locally greater risk
for wind damage would be possible. The overall hail threat should
remain rather low given weak upper-level winds, but small to
marginally severe hail could occur with the strongest storms. Drier
air to the east has led to weaker buoyancy. Storms are expected to
gradually weaken as they move east into the early evening.
..Wendt.. 05/22/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 41287842 43377700 43897606 43717551 43007504 40747588
39327700 38577749 38417780 38647822 39587822 41287842