031
ACUS11 KWNS 260523
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260522
TXZ000-260715-

Mesoscale Discussion 0967
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Areas affected...West central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 260522Z - 260715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development along the dryline northwest of
the San Angelo region appears possible within the next few hours
based on satellite observations and trends in numerical guidance.
Given a conditionally favorable severe environment, watch issuance
may be warranted later tonight.

DISCUSSION...Over the past 30 minutes, a small cluster of cumulus
has become evident in GOES IR and nighttime microphysics imagery to
the northwest of the San Angelo, TX area along the surface dryline.
Low-level confluence along the boundary appears fairly weak based on
regional surface observations, and MLCIN continues to increase amid
nocturnal cooling. However, the steady deepening recently observed
suggests that some nebulous forcing for ascent may be sufficient for
a couple attempts at convective initiation. Confidence in
thunderstorm development is low given the aforementioned concerns,
but recent HRRR solutions hint that a few storms may emerge during
the 07-10 UTC time frame across west-central TX. Given a
conditionally favorable convective environment (MLCAPE between
2000-2500 J/kg, 0-6 km BWD values near 50 knots among other
metrics), thunderstorms that can mature may pose a severe risk.
Trends will continue to be monitored for the need for a watch later
tonight.

..Moore/Edwards.. 05/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   31300198 31490217 31790191 32400068 32939988 33199957
            33289918 33229863 32789843 32459843 32049862 31709907
            31479968 31400000 31240056 31130106 31100141 31170176
            31300198