442
ACUS11 KWNS 291819
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291818
COZ000-NEZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-292015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1065
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Areas affected...portions of southeast WY...western NE...eastern CO
and far northeast NM

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 291818Z - 292015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Initial thunderstorm activity this afternoon will be
capable of gusty winds and hail approaching 1 inch diameter.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are starting to develop over higher
terrain early this afternoon as strong heating overlaps with
increasing large-scale ascent. Boundary-layer moisture will remain
modest with dewpoints generally in the 40s F near and immediately
east of the I-25 corridor. Deep boundary-layer mixing is resulting
in inverted-v type sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles, and steep
low-level lapse rates greater than 9 C/km are noted in recent SPC
Mesoanalysis data. This suggests storms moving off higher terrain
into the adjacent high Plains may produce strong downdrafts and
locally strong to severe gusts. Steep midlevel lapse rates will
contribute to further destabilization, with MLCAPE to around 1000
J/kg expected. Vertical shear will remain weak, limiting longevity
of stronger updrafts. Nevertheless, cool temperature aloft and steep
lapse rates may support marginal hail with this initial convection.

Initial severe potential closer to the I-25 corridor appears limited
and a watch is not expected at this time. With time, somewhat
greater boundary layer moisture will advect westward into far
eastern CO/southwest NE/western KS. Severe potential may increase
with eastward extent later this afternoon or evening, and this risk
will be addressed in later MCDs.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/29/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...

LAT...LON   40990545 41610556 42180495 42270444 42090386 41550342
            40760321 36690301 36540325 36470381 36500434 36680473
            36840474 39060512 40320541 40990545