013
ACUS11 KWNS 301913
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301912
TXZ000-NMZ000-302115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1080
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Areas affected...far southeast NM into west Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 301912Z - 302115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms may develop by 20-21z. Damaging
gusts to 80 mph and large hail to baseball size will be possible
with these storms. A tornado or two also can not be ruled out with
any storm interacting with an outflow boundary.

DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary continues to shift south/southwest
across the region. Strong heating along this boundary and to the
east of a north to south oriented dryline has aided in eroding
capping over the region. Latest satellite imagery shows deepening
cumulus developing along both boundaries at 19z. Isolated to widely
scattered storms are expected to develop by 20-21z. The
southward-advancing outflow boundary is resulting in some
uncertainty. However, any storms developing within this strongly
unstable environment will quickly become severe. Very steep midlevel
lapse rates, elongated hodographs and effective shear magnitudes
around 35 kt suggest supercells capable of significant gusts and
very large hail will be possible.

Low-level vorticity and SRH will be maximized along the outflow
boundary. Any cell moving off the dryline and interacting with this
boundary will also pose some risk for a tornado or two. A watch will
likely be needed in the next 1-2 hours.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/30/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   33950356 34320348 34460325 34480292 33920199 32630120
            32040100 30740113 29190149 28750256 28940344 30040325
            30770304 31930313 33950356