325
ACUS11 KWNS 280453
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280452
TXZ000-OKZ000-280645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1030
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Areas affected...Far Northwest TX...Southwest OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 280452Z - 280645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage, with an attendant threat
for large hail, is anticipated across far northwest Texas and
southwest Oklahoma over the next few hours. Overall severe coverage
is uncertain, but convective trends will be monitored for possible
watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low about 40 miles
east of BGS, with a warm front extending east-northeastward from
this low across north Texas and into the Arklatex. Modest warm-air
advection across this boundary likely contributed to the development
of the thunderstorm ongoing over Baylor County. The core of the
low-level jet is expected to remain west of the region, but a
general strengthening of the jet will allow its eastern periphery to
interact with this frontal zone, likely contributing to additional
storm development via warm-air advection. Steep mid-level lapse
rates remain in place over the region, with mesoanalysis estimating
8 to 8.5 deg C per km from 700 to 500 mb. Moderate westerly flow
aloft will persist as well, contributing to 0-6 km bulk shear from
40 to 50 kt. General expectation is for increasing storm coverage
over the next hour or two, with some updrafts becoming strong enough
to produce isolated large hail.

..Mosier/Smith.. 05/28/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   33470010 34240022 35209968 34929785 33409755 33289853
            33470010