812
ACUS11 KWNS 292027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292027
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-292230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1068
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Areas affected...southeast WY...western NE...eastern CO and far
western KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 292027Z - 292230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected into early
evening. Damaging gusts and hail will be the main concerns with this
activity. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are intensifying this afternoon away from
higher terrain over the adjacent high Plains. Southeasterly
low-level winds around 20-30 kt have allowed dewpoints to climb into
the upper 40s to low 50s F. Strong heating and steep midlevel lapse
rates are further supporting MLCAPE values up to 1500 J/kg. Vertical
shear is expected to increase with eastward extent toward evening,
and thunderstorm clusters may become better organized with time.
Furthermore, a deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud
thermodynamic profiles will support strong downdrafts and
thunderstorm gusts of 55-70 mph are expected. Additionally, very
steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient vertical shear and
instability for at least briefly robust updrafts may also support
large hail. Some potential for a couple of landspouts also will
exist into early evening across parts of eastern CO where backed
low-level winds are present in an area of low-level convergence near
a surface low/trough.

A severe thunderstorm watch is likely for portions of the MCD area.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/29/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   43560553 43470370 42970257 40860159 40480150 37450140
            37100186 37000231 37010349 37020417 39180451 42330499
            43560553