660
ACUS11 KWNS 050202
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050202
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-050330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1170
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0902 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024

Areas affected...parts of northeastern Oklahoma far southeast KS
extreme southwest MO and northwestern AR.

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 050202Z - 050330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Intensifying bowing segments moving out of southern KS
should persist with a risk for damaging gusts and isolated hail over
parts of OK, AR and MO. A new Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely
be needed soon.

DISCUSSION...As of 0155 UTC, regional radar imagery showed several
intensifying bowing structures were located over parts of
southeastern KS. These storms have produced several measured severe
and damaging gusts over the last couple of hours. Storms are
expected to continue propagating southeastward along a buoyancy
gradient near the OK/AR border into this evening. Additional
development along the southwest flank is also possible into parts of
north-central OK with time supporting further upscale growth. The
moderate MLCAPE (2000-3000 J/kg) will continue to support robust
updrafts with the potential for severe gusts and occasional hail.

A further complicating factor is a second cluster of storms
currently over central OK. These storms are likely to persist and
may eventually merge with the cluster moving out of KS. While there
remains some uncertainty on storm evolution, the severe risk is
expected to increase over eastern OK this evening. A new Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is likely needed soon.

..Lyons/Hart.. 06/05/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   36889404 37189403 37569420 37679436 37719463 37339527
            37099604 36919672 36739695 36529693 36239676 35029620
            34439584 34029560 33979526 33959490 33949466 34159440
            34409427 34849411 36179408 36459407 36889404