466
FXUS64 KMEG 271114
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
614 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Mostly dry and warm conditions are expected for Memorial Day. Highs
will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s. A few afternoon pop up
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Dry conditions will persist for
much of the area through the week, with a slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Convection from an advancing cold front is confined to north
Mississippi as of 3 AM. Latest mesoanalysis still indicates a moist
and unstable air mass to keep convection going. Environmentally in
this convective area includes MLCAPE values across north Mississippi
are 2000-2500 J/kg, mid-level lapse rates ~7.5 C/km, and 50-60 kts
of effective shear. The slow moving cold front is currently just
west of the Mississippi River. Convective and severe weather should
come to an end this morning around 7 AM.

After the line of storms pushes out of the Mid-South, Memorial Day
should be pleasant. A few diurnally driven thunderstorms are
possible, but mostly dry conditions are expected. High pressure will
slowly slide in to encompass the region and dewpoints/humidity
values will slowly decline. A ~1020mb high will encompass the region
by Tuesday morning and will slowly be pushed out by our next chance
of widespread rain late week. A low pressure system from the Baja
region may clip southeast Arkansas and into the Mississippi Delta
region on Wednesday, but nothing severe is currently expected. QPF
for that area is generally an inch or less for Wednesday. Diurnally
driven, pop-up thunderstorms are possible each day as temperatures
will return to near normal as May comes to a close.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Other than a few thunderstorms moving out of northeast Mississippi
this morning, VFR conditions are expected for much of the forecast
period. Winds will be mainly from the northwest around 5 knots.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...ARS