340
FXUS64 KMEG 262035
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
335 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

One final round of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected
tonight before a period of drier weather is expected for the
upcoming work week. A few showers and thunderstorms are expected
Wednesday, mainly in north Mississippi, but much more widespread
storms return next weekend. Cooler temperatures are expected
Wednesday featuring highs around 80 degrees. Temperatures will
trend warmer Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Additional thunderstorms this afternoon look uncertain, but any
storms that do develop have a high potential to become severe.
Data from A Little Rock special sounding has increased confidence
that severe storms capable of strong tornadoes, very large hail,
and intense damaging winds are possible this afternoon and
continuing into the evening. The Storm Prediction Center has
upgraded northern portions of west Tennessee, far northeast
Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel to a Tornado/Wind driven
Moderate Risk(level 4/5) in their Day 1 Convective Outlook.

A line of showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold front
is expected to traverse the Midsouth tonight. CAMS have been
inconsistent in how solid this line will be but timing has been
pretty solid. Expect the main threat from strong to severe
thunderstorms between 9 PM and 5 AM. Tornadoes, damaging wind,
large hail and flooding from heavy rain are all possible. The
threat of tornadoes should diminish through the night as
hodographs lengthen resulting in less pronounced low level shear.
However, as the line interacts with any outflow boundaries from
storms earlier today, or additional storms this afternoon, the
localized threat for a tornado could become enhanced.

A Flood watch remains in effect for the northern half
of the Midsouth through 7 AM. Portions of the Missouri bootheel
and west Tennessee along the Kentucky State Line where MRMS data
indicates 2-4 inches has already fallen will be most vulnerable
for additional flooding. Local amounts of rain in excess of 6
inches has likely fallen in this region prompting Flood and Flash
flood Warnings. Any additional rain has a high potential to
exacerbate ongoing flooding issues.

Surface high pressure will build in on Monday behind the overnight
line of storms. A few showers may still linger in north
Mississippi and along the Tennessee River around Sunrise tomorrow,
but Memorial Day looks dry across most of the Midsouth. Highs
Tomorrow and Tuesday are expected to be in the middle 80s to
around 90 degrees.

A low amplitude long wave trough will shift across the Upper and
Middle Mississippi River Valley late Tuesday into Wednesday along
with a cold front. A shortwave will track from southeast Oklahoma
into south Mississippi possibly helping to initiate a few showers
and thunderstorms in north Mississippi Wednesday. High
temperatures Wednesday are expected to be around 80 degrees.
Temperatures will trend warmer Thursday into next weekend with
highs back in the mid 80s by Sunday. More widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected to return to the Midsouth next weekend.

30/Sirmon

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

CAMS continue to show very little activity across the Midsouth this
afternoon despite ongoing storms along the Tennessee/Kentucky state
line. Will not included any mention this afternoon at any TAF site,
but an isolated storm cannot be ruled out. Overnight, a line of
showers and thunderstorms will likely impact all TAF sites. MVFR
ceilings are possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms. Convection
should exit the Midsouth shortly after sunrise. South winds today
at 10 to 15 knots with gusts over 25kt will shift to the
southwest behind the thunderstorms overnight. Low level wind shear
is likely tonight, but TS in the TAF will preclude any mention.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Monday morning for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
     036-048.

MO...Flood Watch through Monday morning for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...Flood Watch through Monday morning for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...JDS