902
FXUS62 KMFL 221915
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
315 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

...Moderate Risk Of Rip Currents Beaches Of Palm Beach County...
...Drier Weather This Weekend...
...Hot Temperatures Possibility Returning Next Week...

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1215 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

With the mid-level shortwave continuing to propagate to the east
today, 500mb flow is veering to a more northerly direction and
temperatures aloft have begun to warm. Combined with background
northeasterly surface flow prevailing, sea-breeze circulations
will favor convective initiation across the southern inland
portions of our area once again. With the Atlantic sea-breeze
progressing further inland, the greatest convective activity will
center over inland/suburban Miami-Dade, Mainland Monroe, and
Collier Counties this afternoon albeit with less coverage. 500mb
temperatures will be in the -5 to -7 C range this afternoon. This
will keep the majority of thunderstorm activity in the garden
variety form, although localized ascent along boundary collisions
could still support the potential of a quick pulse isolated strong
to severe capable of a wet microburst if the storm pulses up and
collapses in a quick fashion. High temperatures will range from
the upper 80s along the east coast to temperatures in the low to
mid 90s across southwestern Florida.

By Thursday, the mid-level ridge will continue to build and remain
centered over the Gulf of Mexico during this time frame as the
aforementioned shortwave remains in the western Atlantic waters.
Between these two synoptic features, South Florida will remain in a
light northerly 500mb flow regime with a lack of synoptic forcing
across the area with the subtropical jet located well to the north
of our region. At the surface, ridging situated over the
southeastern United States will allow for relatively light winds
across the region. Therefore, with a lack of the aforementioned
synoptic support, mesoscale patterns, such as the sea-breeze
circulation, will dictate temperatures and the most probable
locations for convective initiation and coverage which will mainly
focus across inland areas during the afternoon hours. Typical
thunderstorm hazards, such as heavy rainfall and gusty winds, will
be possible, but still cannot rule out isolated strong to severe
pulse storms that are able to take advantage of the localized
maximized ascent along boundary collisions even in the background of

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Thursday night into Friday night...

The 500 mb ridge will remain over the Gulf of Mexico as a trough
of low pressure moves eastward from the Central United States into
the Southeastern United States. This will keep most of the deeper
moisture north of South Florida during this time frame. However,
the east and west coast sea breezes should develop on Friday and
push inland. Where the sea breezes collide, there could be a few
showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon and even hours on
Friday mainly over the interior areas.

Highs on Friday will be around 90 over the metro areas to the
lower to mid 90s over the interior areas. This will allow for the
heat indices to get up into mid to upper 90s over the metro areas
to around 100 over the interior areas. Lows Thursday night and
again Friday night will be lower to mid 70s over the interior
areas and mid 70s over the metro areas.

This weekend...
The 500 mb high will weaken a little bit over the Gulf of Mexico
as the trough of low pressure moves east into the Western Atlantic
waters. This will allow for a weak cold front to move southward
into Northern Florida from the north before dissipating. This in
turn will allow for a little bit more of a south/southwest flow
over South Florida this weekend. Therefore, the best coverage will
be over the Lake okeechobee region and the NE areas of South
Florida each afternoon. However, the POPS will be in the 20 to 30
percent range mainly over the areas mention above.

Highs this weekend will be in the lower to mid 90s over the metro
areas with mid 90s to near 100 over the interior areas. Heat
indices will also be in the lower 100s over the metro areas to mid
100s over the interior areas. Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s
over the interior areas to mid to upper 70s over the metro areas.

Early to mid next week...
Another trough of low pressure will build into the Eastern United
States for early to middle of next week. This will allow for
another cold front to move southward into the Southeastern United
States. This in turn will keep the south to southwest wind flow
over South Florida during this time frame and allow for deeper
moisture to start to work into the region from the south.
Therefore, isolated to scattered POPs will possible each afternoon
mainly over the interior and east coast metro areas each
afternoon.

At the same time, the highs will be increasing again over South
Florida with lower to mid 90s over the metro areas to mid to upper
90s over the interior areas with even an isolated 100 around Lake
Okeechobee region. The heat indices will also be going up into the
mid 100s over most areas with even a few locations over the
interior areas getting up into the upper 100s to near 110 degrees
each afternoon. The lows each night will also be back into the mid
70s over the interior areas to around 80 over the metro areas.

If this trend continues in later model runs, then there could be
heat advisories again for South Florida for early to middle of
next week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the period with easterly flow
expected. A few showers and storms will be possible this afternoon
although the vast majority of activity should remain further
inland. L/V flow is expected to return overnight. &&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1215 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Generally benign conditions should prevail across local waters
throughout the period. Locally enhanced winds and seas will be
possible in and around shower and thunderstorm activity across local

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1215 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

With onshore wind flow returning to the east coast of South Florida,
a gradual increase in rip current risks will continue across the
east coast through the remainder of the work-week. A moderate risk
of rip currents remains in place for Palm Beach County beaches at
this time, but could be extended into rest of the east coast
beaches in later updates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  89  77  91 /  10  30  10  10
West Kendall     74  91  73  93 /  20  30  10  10
Opa-Locka        76  90  76  93 /  10  30  10  10
Homestead        76  89  76  91 /  20  30  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  77  88  77  89 /  10  30  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  76  88  76  90 /  10  20  10  10
Pembroke Pines   76  92  77  94 /  10  30  10  10
West Palm Beach  74  88  73  91 /   0  20   0  10
Boca Raton       75  89  75  91 /  10  20  10  10
Naples           75  93  77  92 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rizzuto
LONG TERM....BNB
AVIATION...Rizzuto