945
FXUS62 KMFL 060528
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
128 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 701 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A few lingering showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm will
be possible over the next couple hours over SW Florida but
otherwise a dry and warm night is expected. No significant changes
to the ongoing forecast with the evening update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1200 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The surface ridge will continue to gradually lose its strength
today, but will remain enough of a factor to keep a general
southeasterly wind regime in the low levels and at the surface.
Lingering subsidence and mid-level drier air will inhibit the
overall convective potential, particularly from a large scale
perspective. Nevertheless, the gulf and sea breezes will act as
sources of lift through this evening, with scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing. Highest PoPs will be towards the
interior and west coast, around 40-50% as an easterly-
southeasterly regime favors those areas. The main hazards with any
storms will be locally heavy rain, gusty winds and frequent
lightning. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s
near the coasts and mid to upper 90s over the interior sections,
with peak heat indices in the low triple digits.

Heading into Thursday, large scale troughing will push into the
eastern U.S., with a mid-level shortwave propagating along the
southern edge of it over central and southern Florida. This
shortwave will enhance ascent across the area, in addition to the
daily afternoon sea and gulf breezes, resulting in showers and
storms being more widespread. With steepening mid-level lapse
rates and lower freezing levels, there will be the potential for
some storms to become strong to severe with large hail, primarily
across the Lake Okeechobee and Palm Beach County areas. Storms
will also be capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning,
and heavy rain. High temperatures will see a slight uptick with
winds turning more southerly, allowing a vast majority of
locations to reach the low to mid 90s. Peak heat index values will
approach advisory criteria, reaching 103-108 across much of the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 226 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Friday-Sunday: The aforementioned mid-level trough will continue
pushing eastward as an attendant surface frontal boundary drifts
across the southeast US. As a result, local winds will shift from
the west-southwest through the weekend, leading to abnormally warm
temperatures across the East Coast each afternoon. High
temperatures could reach the mid to upper 90s each day, with areas
in the interior potentially topping out in the triple digits.
Heat indices will likewise climb into the mid 100s for most areas
under southwest flow, and thus there will be potential for heat
advisories. Isolated showers and thunderstorms could provide some
relief each afternoon, with 40-50% chances for precip along the
East coast metro each afternoon. Southwest Florida will benefit
from the prevailing flow, with temperatures up to the low 90s
possible.

Next week: For early next week, guidance starts to vary more drastically as
some guidance highlights potential for a tropical wave to impact
the area and other guidance shows it avoiding the area. If this
feature continues to show signs of materializing in future
guidance and could pose threats to our region, then potential
impacts will be described. However, conditions are highly
uncertain at this time and thus this needs to be taken with a
grain of salt for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR continues at all terminals through around 15Z, then another
round of showers and/or thunderstorms may bring brief periods of
sub-VFR cigs/vis. SE Winds increase to around 10kt this
afternoon, then light and variable later in the evening. Only
exception will be APF where a westerly flow develops with
afternoon Gulf breezes.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Benign conditions will be in place for the rest of the week with
seas at 2 feet or less and east-southeast winds around 5 to 10 kts.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day,
and may create locally hazardous winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            92  79  93  79 /  50  20  40  20
West Kendall     94  76  94  76 /  50  20  40  20
Opa-Locka        94  79  94  78 /  40  20  40  10
Homestead        91  77  92  77 /  40  20  40  20
Fort Lauderdale  91  79  92  79 /  40  20  40  20
N Ft Lauderdale  92  79  93  79 /  40  20  40  20
Pembroke Pines   95  79  96  80 /  40  20  40  10
West Palm Beach  93  76  94  77 /  40  30  40  10
Boca Raton       93  78  94  78 /  40  20  40  20
Naples           93  79  92  79 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...17