Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
168 FXUS62 KMFL 121936 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 336 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...ON GOING MAJOR FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY... ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA... ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 131 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 A pretty sloppy setup this afternoon as precipitation overspreads South Florida. A frontal boundary remains stalled out over central Florida this afternoon as a few shortwave impulses pivot into the area and interact with the anomalous tropical moisture (PWATs 2.3-2.5 inches) that remains pooled over the area. Areas of the interior have already seen broad swatches of 4-8 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, while the East Coast has just begun to see accumulations increase with 2-4 inches across portions of Miami- Dade and Broward counties. As rainfall continues, portions of the region could see several additional inches, enhancing the concern for considerable flash flooding especially for areas that already saw 4-6 inches of rain on Tuesday. The possibility for severe weather (tornadoes and gusty winds) also remains a secondary threat through the evening. Some of the discrete cells today have shown rotation signatures and ACARS soundings support a threat for additional quick spin-up tornadoes. With ample cloud coverage and precipitation over the area, high temperatures will remain in low-mid 80s over much of the region. The only notable change to the synoptic pattern on Thursday will be the development of an intensifying sfc. low over the stalled boundary to our north, just off the SE Coast. This low (which may eventually acquire subtropical characteristics over the Gulf Stream) will shift NE in the late week period, but looks to at least in the short term keep the subtropical moisture tap in place over our area through Thursday (i.e. the classic cyclone moisture tail). && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 249 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 .Thursday Night To Friday... The low level trough will continue to remain over South Florida from the tropical low over Northwest Atlantic waters to Southwest Gulf of Mexico. This will allow for the continuation of PWAT values in the 2 to 2.2 inch range which is near the maximum value for this time of year. This means that we can still see very heavy rainfall thursday night into Friday over South Florida. Additional rainfall amounts during this time frame can still be 2 to 4 inches over the area on top of the already heavy rainfall that been occurring over the area. This will continue to lead to possible flooding conditions. Therefore, the Flood Watch has been extended until Friday evening for all of South Florida. There could also be possibility of some severe weather over South Florida during this time frame, as some cooler air in the mid levels of the atmosphere works down the Florida peninsula from the north. 500 mb temperatures should be able to get down to -7 to -8C. Primary impacts will be mainly gusty winds, heavy rainfall, but cannot rule out an isolated tornado. .This Weekend... The trough of low pressure will remain over South Florida this weekend keeping the PWAT values in the 2 to 2.2 inch range which is still near the maximum value for this time of year. Therefore, the heavy rainfall will continue across South Florida this weekend. POPs will remain in the likely range over South Florida this weekend. Therefore, the Flood watch could be needed to be extended into the weekend over South Florida in later updates. Highs will also remain cooler in the 80s due to the cloud cover and showers and thunderstorms. Lows will also remain in the mid to upper 70s except around 80 over the metro areas. .Early Next Week... The long range models are showing that the trough of low pressure should weaken early next week allowing for high pressure to build back into the area. This should allow for some drier air to work into South Florida leading to more of typical summer weather pattern with daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 131 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 All terminals could continue to experience periods of MVFR/IFR conditions this afternoon as repeated rounds of SHRA/TSRA overspread across South FL. IFR TEMPOs from 18-22Z may need to be amended/extended as conditions evolve, with LIFR restrictions possible as well. Rain chances decrease overnight, but a few rounds of SHRA could still impact terminals through the night. Outside of storm outflows generally southerly winds - gusty at times - will prevail through the evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 131 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Near cautionary southerly winds will persist over the area waters today as the area remains south of a stalled front and associated surface low. These winds will decrease Thursday into the late week period as the low progresses northeast into the Atlantic waters. Numerous showers and thunderstorms remain likely through much of the upcoming week resulting in periods of locally higher winds and seas. Outside of storms wave heights should remain 3 ft or less through the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 78 85 76 86 / 90 80 90 100 West Kendall 75 87 74 87 / 100 80 90 100 Opa-Locka 77 87 76 88 / 90 80 90 100 Homestead 76 87 75 86 / 100 80 90 90 Fort Lauderdale 77 84 77 86 / 90 80 90 100 N Ft Lauderdale 77 85 76 87 / 90 80 90 100 Pembroke Pines 77 88 77 89 / 90 80 90 100 West Palm Beach 75 85 75 87 / 80 90 90 100 Boca Raton 76 86 76 87 / 90 80 90 100 Naples 77 86 76 86 / 80 90 100 100 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through Friday evening for FLZ063-066>075-168- 172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Carr LONG TERM....BNB AVIATION...ATV